EUR/USD Forecast: capped below 1.1050, downside exposed


Loads on noise but little results for the EUR/USD pair these days, as the pair closed the week flat a few pips below the 1.1000 level. The pair fell down to 1.0818 mid this week, but reversed sharply on news Greece may get a deal, and EU officers are  working to prevent a default. On Friday, the revision of US's first quarter GDP figures did not help dollar's case, as per showing the economy actually shrank 0.7%. But the pair was unable to run above 1.1000 either. 

There will be several critical fundamental releases during the upcoming days, but the technical picture still favors the downside in the long run, as the weekly chart shows that the price is still below a strongly bearish 20 SMA around 1.1050, also a strong static resistance area, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bearish tone in negative territory. Daily basis, the pair trades below its 100 SMA, around 1.1030, and below the 20 SMA a 1.1150, whilst the Momentum indicator continues to head lower below 100 , whilst the RSI hovers around 44, all far from suggesting an upward reversal for the upcoming days.

For the upcoming days, 1.1050 is the key resistance level to follow, as a break above it exposes the pair to a quick run towards 1.1120, whilst above this last, bulls will likely take the pair closer to the 1.1300 region. To the downside, the main support now stands around 1.0860, with a break below it exposing the pair to a steadier decline towards the 1.0700 price zone by the ends of next week. 

View live chart of the EUR/USD


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