GBPUSD: Upwards Correction vs Downtrend Reversal !

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Is Cable`s Consolidation Complete Yet ?! Cable unfolded exactly as expected and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 156 pips in profit. On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave (c) green is incomplete and that it is unfolding downwards.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action which now expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete the final leg within wave 2 of minor degree.

On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave 2 of minor degree is complete and that Cable has started to unfold downwards within wave 3 of minor degree as an impulse.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5932 — 1.4004

– Confirmation Point: 1.4460 — 1.4515

– Upwards Targets: 1.4544 — 1.4640 — 1.4690

– Wave number: y pink

– Wave structure: Corrective

– Wave pattern: ُDouble Zigzag

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4515

– Confirmation Point: 1.4004 — 1.3835

– Downwards Targets: 1.3721 — 1.3554

– Wave number: (c) (iii) green

– Wave structure: Motive

– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 11th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that wave 1 blue is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with wave v pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within minor wave 2 blue, waves w and x pink are complete and that wave y pink has started unfolding upwards.

Wave w pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange with wave b orange unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

After the completion of wave (b) green, wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Within wave y pink it is likely that wave (a) green is unfolding upwards as an impulse.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.4460 and the final confirmation point is at 1.4515.

At 1.4544 wave y pink would reach 0.618 of wave w pink and at 1.4640 wave 2 blue would reach 0.382 of wave 1 blue and finally at 1.4690 wave y pink would reach equality with wave w pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4004 as within wave y pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue.

Alternate Wave Count

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave 2 blue.

This count expects that wave 2 blue is complete and that wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v)_green.

Wave b pink unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave 3 blue, it is likely that wave i pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards.

Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange has started unfolding downwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.4004 and the final confirmation point is at 1.3835.

At 1.3721 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green and at 1.3554 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4515 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave (iii) green is underway.

We may also wish to keep an eye on the daily update GBP USD Forecast.