USD/JPY 1H chart 8/1/2013 8:30AM ET
Consolidation, break: The USD/JPY has been consolidating roughly between 98.50 and 97.57. Even after the US GDP data and then FOMC policy decision, the USD/JPY remained in range. In the 8/1 European session, it finally pushed above the consolidation resistance, signaling a more bullish consolidation if not a reversal in development.
Central pivot test: If the market comes back into the consolidation range, it would show bears still in charge. However, if the throwback can stay above 98.00, there is still a chance the market is respecting the broken range as a bottom for some short-term bullish outlook. Otherwise, the focus will be back to 97.60 area, especially with the wind of a prevailing downtrend on its back in the short-term.
If the break above 98.50 holds, there is upside toward first the 99.38 pivot, then up to the 100.43 resistance pivot. The 100 psychological handle could be of interest to the market as well.
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