The dollar index rose on last trading day for March

Good Morning,

- The Euro fell on worries whether Greece can secure aid before it runs out of cash...

- Asian stocks rose after a rally on Wall Street last night and steps by China to shore up its economy.

- The dollar index rose on last trading day for March and was on track for its best quarter since 2008. Still, the dollar has been supported by expectations that the Fed will start tightening monetary policy later this year.

- Germany, Greece's biggest creditor, demanded that it show more commitment to reform while Athens said it cannot make an "unconditional" agreement with lenders.

- Germany’s retail turnover in February 2014 increased 3.6% in real terms and 2.8% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year.

- JP Morgan on EUR/USD: The latest bounce from 1.0462 (last low) in EUR/USD already failed to reach and challenge the preceding breakout point at 1.1098, which in combination with last Thursday's key reversal day down leaves the bears in their comfort zone and keeps 1.0072 (76.4 % of the 2000-2008 rally) in focus. JPM argues that another attempt to break above 1.1098 in favor of a broader recovery to 1.1267/79 (int. 38.2 %) can not be excluded as long as key-support at 1.0613/01 (pivot/minor 76.4 %) has not been broken decisively on hourly close (i.e. below 1.0575). JPM thinks that above 1.0613/01 the market keeps the option to challenge and break above 1.1098, which would shift the focus on the first major T-junction at 1.1267/79. On the downside, JPM thinks that only a break below the key support at 1.0613/01 (pivot/minor 76.4 %) would support a straight extension of the broader downtrend to 1.0072 and possibly to projected wave 3 Fib.-targets at 0.9652 and at 0.9298.

- Australia’s central bank is under intensifying pressure to cut interest rates next week as iron ore, the nation’s biggest export, plunges to a decade low. Traders’ bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its cash rate by a quarter percentage point to a new record low of 2 percent have doubled to an 80 percent chance from 40 percent two weeks ago, swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iron ore, which fell 47 percent last year, is headed for the biggest quarterly loss since at least 2009 as surging low-cost supplies swamp the global market while growth in demand from China slows.

- Japanese housing starts declined at a slower than expected pace in February. Housing starts dropped 3.1 percent in February from last year, slower than January's 13 percent decline and an expected decrease of 7 percent. It fell for the twelfth consecutive month in February.

- China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange sees 2015 GDP growth to be around 7%. Stable economic growth will support yuan stability. China has sufficient forex reserves to protect against economic shock. SAFE will further improve yuan exchange rate mechanism, will step up the crackdown on illegal forex activities, will continue to monitor capital flows, will steadily push forward with yuan convertibility.

- U.S. crude oil trade under pressure as the Mar. 31 deadline loomed for Iran and six world powers negotiating a deal for Tehran's nuclear program. If agreement to end Western sanctions is reached OPEC-member Iran would be able to ship more crude into an already saturated market.

- Watch today: German retail sales, Eurozone CPI, US confidence.

Have a nice Week !