Greenback rally extends into 3rd consecutive day

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar opens marginally lower this morning as U.S. dollar strength continues on the back stronger economic activity and a reduction in overall unemployment claims. The Aussie found support in stronger than anticipated Chinese manufacturing data bouncing to intraday highs of 0.8799 before retreating to close Thursday at 0.8758. With the local economic docket free of headline data direction will come from offshore stimuli and we expect current ranges to be maintained into the weekend.   

• We expect a range today between 0.8725 – 0.8820

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar was driven lower through trade on Thursday as a third quarter CPI report showed a dip in overall inflation. The reduction in price pressures allows the RBNZ more scope in maintaining its neutral monetary policy stance and affords the Central Bank more room in delaying its next rate hike. In the biggest move since October 3rd the Kiwi lost 1.5% touching intraday lows of 0.7809. With Trade Balance data headlining todays domestic docket investors will be looking for any signs of weakness with potential for a move through support levels at 0.78 while a strong showing could encourage a correction back toward 0.79.

• We expect a range today of 0.7720 – 0.7920

Great British Pound:

The Cable retraction continued yesterday entering a 3rd consecutive day as retail sales fell more than anticipated throughout September. In fact Sterling weakened against the majority of its major trading partners a move compounded by comments from Bank of England Board Member Ben Broadbent. Broadbent suggested “any rise in official policy rates are likely to be limited and gradual” sparking further speculation that accommodative monetary policy will be the accepted status quo moving into 2015. With Prelim GDP data the headline macro driver Friday investors will be looking for a strong or stable showing to keep the currency above 1.60 to close the week.

• We expect a range today between 1.8220 – 1.8420

Majors:

The Greenback correction continued Thursday with the Bloomberg dollar spot index advancing for a third consecutive day. Fewer jobless claims and a reported increase in national economic activity according to the Fed Reserves Bank of Chicago helped bolster market confidence sparking a risk on rally. A week of stable and strengthening US data sets supports an overall stronger US economy and view that the recovery can withstand deteriorating global growth. In other news the Euro rot was halted, if only momentarily, by an unexpected expansion in Manufacturing PMI. German and Eurozone reports showed an increase throughout September easing concerns the stagnant European Economy is moving closer to an overall contraction. Finally the Japanese Yen dove downward as Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that a weaker Yen appears in line with economic fundamentals and promised to increase stimulus if needed adding to already unprecedented levels of support. With little on the global economic calendar to close the week focus will turn to New Home Sales data in the U.S. for additional indications the economy is rebounding.   

Data releases

• AUD: No Data
• NZD: Trade Balance
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: Prelim GDP q/q and Index of Services
• EUR: GfK German Consumer Climate, Italian Retail Sales. EU Economic Summit and Belgian BNN Business Climate
• USD: New Home Sales