Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar continued its struggle against the Greenback on Friday underpinned by the continuing fall in iron ore prices. The Aussie finished the week at a rate of 0.8929, over half a cent weaker, just off the daily lows. The focus this week will continue to be on the US Federal Reserve as Chair Janet Yellen emphasised the time frame to an interest rate increase will depend heavily on the strength of underlying US economy, not simply the labour market. In other happenings Chinese manufacturing on Tuesday will provide an important look as to how China’s economy is tracking as policy makers continue their efforts in trying to spur additional activity, efforts which will closely monitored by nation’s like Australia who are highly invested in their success
- We expect a range today of 0.8890 – 0.8970
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar fell slightly against the Greenback during Friday’s trade after local data failed to impress. Visitor arrivals can be seen as a leading indicator for tourism and have follow on effects to monthly retail sales and job data. The arrival numbers showed a 3 per cent drop and the higher yielding currency began to fall. Over the weekend New Zealand watched as John Key’s National party was re-elected for a 3rd term in an overwhelming victory at the polls. Monday will begin with local consumer sentiment data during Asian trade and US numbers overnight giving direction over the week ahead. The Kiwi opens this morning marginally weaker against the USD at 0.8123.
- We expect a range today of 0.8115 – 0.8195
Great British Pound:
After gaining heavily towards the end of the week the Sterling steadied on Friday afternoon easing slightly against the US dollar. The major surge on Thursday began after it seemed more likely the No vote for a Scottish referendum was going to win. The vote played out as expected and Scotland will remain a part of the UK. Now that the results are in focus can return to the fundamentals where the strength of the UK economy will be scrutinised as the prospect of an interest rate increase in the near future looms. The British Pound similarly softened marginally against the AUD(1.8240) and NZD(2.0030). Investors will now turn to the myriad of economic data this week locally and offshore for guidance.
- We expect a range today of 1.8190 – 1.8290
Majors:
A combination of poor Eurozone data and US dollar momentum saw the Euro lose nearly a cent during the back end of last the week against the Greenback. The Euro fell sharply after German PPI numbers were flat which remains substantially under ECB expectations. In Europe on Monday ECB president Draghi’s speech in relation to monetary controls will be watched closely as the recent decline in interest rates and new stimulus measures will be of the highest importance to the European economic recovery. The US fed continued to talk this week about what needs to be done to help with the economic recovery and investors were assured interest rates will remain on hold for a considerable time. An array of US data will be the focus this coming week as fed chair Yellen has made it perfectly clear economic numbers need to improve.
Data releases:
- AUD: No data
- NZD: Consumer Sentiment
- JPY: No data
- GBP: No data
- EUR: German Buba Monthly Report, ECB President Draghi Speaks, Consumer Confidence
- USD: Existing Homes Sales, FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
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