United States Dollar:
The USD strengthened on Friday, largely a result of better than expected US economic data; Retail Sales printed at 0.6% vs. an expected 0.3%, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment printed at 84.6 vs. 83.2 and Business Inventories came in at 0.4%. GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.6205. Meanwhile, the polls on the Scottish referendum have been a bit mixed over the weekend. The story is likely to continue dominating the headlines over the next few days, as First Minister Alex Salmond and British PM David Cameron hit the campaign trail. GBP/USD is naturally feeling the weight of this upcoming vote – as it has done over the last few weeks – but it has at least recovered from Friday’s low to open this morning at 1.6250.
Euro:
The euro got a lift from better than expected data on Friday – Industrial Production and Employment Change both printed a little stronger than expected. ECB President Draghi was on the wires too on Friday, although his comments didn’t have too great an impact on the currency. He said that the economic recovery would continue at a modest pace and that the ECB stood ready to take further action should it be needed. European inflation numbers are due on Wednesday this week and will be watched closely. However, most of the market’s attention will be focused on Thursday’s Scottish Referendum vote – it is most likely to have an impact on the EUR/GBP cross rate.
Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:
AUD/USD has fallen steadily over the last few trading sessions. NZD/USD has also fallen, although to a lesser extent as USD strength prevails. Australian Monetary Policy Minutes are due this week whilst NZ GDP follows on Wednesday – the two key focuses for investors this week down-under. Again however, the Scottish Referendum will be the pivotal moment for markets globally come the end of the week. AUD/USD and NZD/USD open this morning at .8995 and .8130 respectively.
Data releases for the next 24 hours:
AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EUR: Trade Balance
GBP: BOE Quarterly Bulletin
NZD: No data
USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150
EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains.
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610
Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap
SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
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