It remains to be seen how long the rupee does not get affected by US dollar gains. In case the US dollar continues to gain after Friday’s release of US nonfarm payrolls then there will be temporary two percent to three percent weakness in the short term. Imported inflation will be lower in India in August due to subdued global prices and a stable rupee. More rains in September (if any) can reduce damage to crops and can help in stabilizing rural demand. Urban and rural demand stabilization will be the key for India in the near term. India does not need a period where higher demand arrives around festivals and thereafter a period of lower demand. First demand pattern has to stabilize and thereafter a period of slow and steady growth. The wounds inflicted to the Indian economy by the previous government will take a lot of time to heal. India is also preparing for global challenges. India also has to deal with expansionist neighbor China and a near nuclear failed state Pakistan. Doing a balancing act will not be easy. There will be periods where the Reserve bank of India will not intervene.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to fall below 60.74 or break and trade over 61.05 for direction. A consolidated break of 61.05 will result in 61.22 and 61.56
Euro/inr September 2014: A consolidated break of 80.09 will result in 80.27 and 80.62. Initial support is at 79.76.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: Cable needs to trade over 101.12 for the whole day to rise to 101.32 and 101.73. Initial support is at 100.95 with 100.62 as the key intraday support.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 58.18 with 58.92 as the key resistance. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 only.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to fall below 60.74 or break and trade over 61.05 for direction. A consolidated break of 61.05 will result in 61.22 and 61.56
Euro/inr September 2014: A consolidated break of 80.09 will result in 80.27 and 80.62. Initial support is at 79.76.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: Cable needs to trade over 101.12 for the whole day to rise to 101.32 and 101.73. Initial support is at 100.95 with 100.62 as the key intraday support.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 58.18 with 58.92 as the key resistance. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 only.
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