"NASDAQ Closes Above 5000 - for first time since the Dot Com Era"
Talk about a big nothing done! Dud, Thud.....so what's the big deal? It's a nice round century mark - yes....but in reality - why all the diagnostics? Michael Santoli trying to get everyone worked up - "Wow, so exciting, technicians all giddy.... etc....." Come on, really?
I remember it very well.....March 2000.....It was all about the excess and euphoria....a once in a generation event.....Look........ - for those of you who do not remember it - you have no sense of the foolishness.... - investment banks could have brought crap to the mktplace - oh right - they did bring crap to the mktplace - all they had to do was put a DOT COM after the name and BOOM! It made no difference what the business plan was - just make sure it has a DOT COM in the name.......and the stupidity only grew. Technology gave people access and so many thought they were brain surgeons....."How easy is this?" You could go to any cocktail party or fundraiser and listen to how everyone was 'killin it'......(and of course they were all trading hundreds of thousands of shares)....... It was - as so many recall - a paradigm shift, it was the technology revolution....but alas - we all know how that ended......and it was not pretty.
The stupidity has subsided or at least it did...although there are pockets of extreme valuations that are building now (Snapchat? Uber? Air BNB?) - valuations that make no sense at all, but with global monetary policy what it is - money has to go somewhere and so - it is being forced to find the next trade - so maybe this is the new NORMAL......(I mean in April 2014 Air BNB raised $450 mil equal to a valuation of $10 billion.....In October they raised another $50 mil bringing the total to $13 billion and now they just completed a capital raise valuing that company in excess of $20 billion! - that is $20,000,000,000. - but it is all about the NEW sharing economy - just like it was about the NEW dot com economy)
Ok...so back to work......yesterday the mkts rallied on a solid batch of mixed to weaker economic data – the kind of data that should spark concern about the future – and yet, the mkt rallied.... The optimism was ignited by the rate cut in China (and the expected rate cut in Australia) ....the backdrop of these central banks and their influence should provide sufficient cover for the FED.... to do nothing....... Last Friday, the Fed awarded $155. billion of three-day fixed-rate “reverse repos” to 69 bidders and yesterday the Fed awarded $118.2 billion in another round of reverse repos all to assure that there is plenty of temporary market liquidity heading into this Friday’s NFP report!
The data- mixed at best! Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 2/3rds of U.S. economic activity, fell by 0.2% after falling 0.3% in December. So you ask - what about lower gas/oil prices? What is the consumer doing with this unexpected windfall? Apparently not spending it......either saving it or paying down debt (which is not a bad thing at all) but these readings do suggests a weaker 1Q GDP. And the ISM Manf Index? Weak all around! It fell too.....to 52.9% from 53.5%. The employment index of the ISM slowed to 51.4% from 54.1%, new orders index eased to 52.5% from 52.9%. A 13-month low but what? Me worry? Don't be ridiculous....
U.S. construction projects declined 1.1% in January, vs. the expectation of a 0.3% increase. Private-construction spending fell 0.5% and there was a 1.6% decline for nonresidential projects. Meanwhile, public-construction spending dropped 2.6% in January. Last week’s PMI report got crushed moving from 59.4 down to 45.8, marking the worst 1-month drop since October 2008, (This is now recessionary territory) - but what? Me worry - don't be ridiculous......The worse the news, the more the Fed intervenes or at least that is the EXPECTATION.
And it is happening all around the world.....Last week Japan reports auto sales were down 14.2% in February. Retail sales are down 2% y/y. Household spending down 5.1% and housing starts in Japan are off 13% y/y, but guess what? Japan’s stock market is up – completely DETACHED from economic reality. And Europe? More of the same.....those mkts are up double digits and we know what's going on there.....
So - overnight the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) did NOT cut rates.....SURPRISE!!! and stocks fell hard initially but did manage to end the day only down 0.45%....and China.....fell out of bed last night - down some 2.2% as their rate cut over the weekend failed to ignite the mkt.....Construction and banking stocks taking it on the chin.....down 2 - 4%.
In Europe mkts there are all a bit lower......although there is some good macro data out as the picture for the EZ continues to brighten.........Spain announces a drop in jobless claims, Germany reporting a rise in retail sales and Swiss GDP rising by 0.6% for the 4Q. But even with all this good news...The ECB is due to start stimulating within days......Draghi will enlighten us of the details in 2 days....FTSE -0.18%, CAC 40 - 0.08%, DAX - 0.02%, EUROSTOXX -0.18%, SPAIN -0.5% AND ITALY -0.3%.
US futures are down 3 pts in early trade as the mkt digests the new highs again yesterday......Oil had a bit of a tough day yesterday but is stabilizing in here at $50/barrel for WTI and $60/barrel for Brent...a far cry from the $42/$45 barrel we saw only weeks ago. Energy names have had a nice comeback as so many were a bit overdone....leaving that sector only down -0.58% ytd..... No real eco data today and the focus remains on Friday's NFP report. Tomorrow will give us an early peak with The ADP report expectation of +220k jobs.
Today - Israeli PM Netanyahu will address Congress at the invitation of House Speaker Boehner - (Obama not happy at all) - there is lots of controversy over this speech...What will he say? What secrets will he reveal? Will it derail Iran nuclear discussions? Is this speech all about political ambitions? Who will be there and who won't? Expect to hear a lot about this speech as the day goes on......
You will need: Chicken breasts and thighs on the bone, S&P, Olive oil, red, green and yellow bell peppers, prosciutto, garlic, can of diced tomatoes*, white wine, thyme & oregano (fresh is always better), chicken stock, capers and parsley (for color).
Begin by seasoning the chicken with S&P. In a heavy skillet - heat olive oil - enough to cover the bottom of the pan, When the oil is hot - then brown the chicken on all sides - remove and set aside.
In the same skillet - turn heat to med - add sliced peppers, and chopped prosciutto - sauté until the peppers are soft and the prosciutto is crisp....(no longer than 5 / 8 mins), next add chopped garlic (not minced) cook for another min or two....add diced tomatoes, about 1/2 - 3/4 cup of white wine and oregano/thyme. Scrape the bottom of the pan. bring to a boil - add back the chicken and chicken stock (about 1/2 - 3/4 cup) bring to boil again....now reduce heat to simmer and cover. Cook for about 30 mins longer. Once ready - add about 2 tblsp of capers and chopped parsley for color - mix and serve on a warmed platter - family style - and present in the center of the table. Accompany with a large green salad of arugula, spinach and bib lettuce, sliced tomatoes, red onions, and cucumbers - dressed in a balsamic vinaigrette. Your choice of a light red wine - nothing to heavy or a chilled white would work fine with this dish.
Talk about a big nothing done! Dud, Thud.....so what's the big deal? It's a nice round century mark - yes....but in reality - why all the diagnostics? Michael Santoli trying to get everyone worked up - "Wow, so exciting, technicians all giddy.... etc....." Come on, really?
I remember it very well.....March 2000.....It was all about the excess and euphoria....a once in a generation event.....Look........ - for those of you who do not remember it - you have no sense of the foolishness.... - investment banks could have brought crap to the mktplace - oh right - they did bring crap to the mktplace - all they had to do was put a DOT COM after the name and BOOM! It made no difference what the business plan was - just make sure it has a DOT COM in the name.......and the stupidity only grew. Technology gave people access and so many thought they were brain surgeons....."How easy is this?" You could go to any cocktail party or fundraiser and listen to how everyone was 'killin it'......(and of course they were all trading hundreds of thousands of shares)....... It was - as so many recall - a paradigm shift, it was the technology revolution....but alas - we all know how that ended......and it was not pretty.
The stupidity has subsided or at least it did...although there are pockets of extreme valuations that are building now (Snapchat? Uber? Air BNB?) - valuations that make no sense at all, but with global monetary policy what it is - money has to go somewhere and so - it is being forced to find the next trade - so maybe this is the new NORMAL......(I mean in April 2014 Air BNB raised $450 mil equal to a valuation of $10 billion.....In October they raised another $50 mil bringing the total to $13 billion and now they just completed a capital raise valuing that company in excess of $20 billion! - that is $20,000,000,000. - but it is all about the NEW sharing economy - just like it was about the NEW dot com economy)
Ok...so back to work......yesterday the mkts rallied on a solid batch of mixed to weaker economic data – the kind of data that should spark concern about the future – and yet, the mkt rallied.... The optimism was ignited by the rate cut in China (and the expected rate cut in Australia) ....the backdrop of these central banks and their influence should provide sufficient cover for the FED.... to do nothing....... Last Friday, the Fed awarded $155. billion of three-day fixed-rate “reverse repos” to 69 bidders and yesterday the Fed awarded $118.2 billion in another round of reverse repos all to assure that there is plenty of temporary market liquidity heading into this Friday’s NFP report!
The data- mixed at best! Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 2/3rds of U.S. economic activity, fell by 0.2% after falling 0.3% in December. So you ask - what about lower gas/oil prices? What is the consumer doing with this unexpected windfall? Apparently not spending it......either saving it or paying down debt (which is not a bad thing at all) but these readings do suggests a weaker 1Q GDP. And the ISM Manf Index? Weak all around! It fell too.....to 52.9% from 53.5%. The employment index of the ISM slowed to 51.4% from 54.1%, new orders index eased to 52.5% from 52.9%. A 13-month low but what? Me worry? Don't be ridiculous....
U.S. construction projects declined 1.1% in January, vs. the expectation of a 0.3% increase. Private-construction spending fell 0.5% and there was a 1.6% decline for nonresidential projects. Meanwhile, public-construction spending dropped 2.6% in January. Last week’s PMI report got crushed moving from 59.4 down to 45.8, marking the worst 1-month drop since October 2008, (This is now recessionary territory) - but what? Me worry - don't be ridiculous......The worse the news, the more the Fed intervenes or at least that is the EXPECTATION.
And it is happening all around the world.....Last week Japan reports auto sales were down 14.2% in February. Retail sales are down 2% y/y. Household spending down 5.1% and housing starts in Japan are off 13% y/y, but guess what? Japan’s stock market is up – completely DETACHED from economic reality. And Europe? More of the same.....those mkts are up double digits and we know what's going on there.....
So - overnight the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) did NOT cut rates.....SURPRISE!!! and stocks fell hard initially but did manage to end the day only down 0.45%....and China.....fell out of bed last night - down some 2.2% as their rate cut over the weekend failed to ignite the mkt.....Construction and banking stocks taking it on the chin.....down 2 - 4%.
In Europe mkts there are all a bit lower......although there is some good macro data out as the picture for the EZ continues to brighten.........Spain announces a drop in jobless claims, Germany reporting a rise in retail sales and Swiss GDP rising by 0.6% for the 4Q. But even with all this good news...The ECB is due to start stimulating within days......Draghi will enlighten us of the details in 2 days....FTSE -0.18%, CAC 40 - 0.08%, DAX - 0.02%, EUROSTOXX -0.18%, SPAIN -0.5% AND ITALY -0.3%.
US futures are down 3 pts in early trade as the mkt digests the new highs again yesterday......Oil had a bit of a tough day yesterday but is stabilizing in here at $50/barrel for WTI and $60/barrel for Brent...a far cry from the $42/$45 barrel we saw only weeks ago. Energy names have had a nice comeback as so many were a bit overdone....leaving that sector only down -0.58% ytd..... No real eco data today and the focus remains on Friday's NFP report. Tomorrow will give us an early peak with The ADP report expectation of +220k jobs.
Today - Israeli PM Netanyahu will address Congress at the invitation of House Speaker Boehner - (Obama not happy at all) - there is lots of controversy over this speech...What will he say? What secrets will he reveal? Will it derail Iran nuclear discussions? Is this speech all about political ambitions? Who will be there and who won't? Expect to hear a lot about this speech as the day goes on......
Roasted Chicken - Roman Style
Paese lato di Roma - means the Countryside of Rome and it is here that we get today's recipe....This meal is hearty and aromatic. The Italian countryside is renowned for its unique artistic heritage, it's beautiful mountains, villages, people and landscapes....This meal comes from the heartland.....You will need: Chicken breasts and thighs on the bone, S&P, Olive oil, red, green and yellow bell peppers, prosciutto, garlic, can of diced tomatoes*, white wine, thyme & oregano (fresh is always better), chicken stock, capers and parsley (for color).
Begin by seasoning the chicken with S&P. In a heavy skillet - heat olive oil - enough to cover the bottom of the pan, When the oil is hot - then brown the chicken on all sides - remove and set aside.
In the same skillet - turn heat to med - add sliced peppers, and chopped prosciutto - sauté until the peppers are soft and the prosciutto is crisp....(no longer than 5 / 8 mins), next add chopped garlic (not minced) cook for another min or two....add diced tomatoes, about 1/2 - 3/4 cup of white wine and oregano/thyme. Scrape the bottom of the pan. bring to a boil - add back the chicken and chicken stock (about 1/2 - 3/4 cup) bring to boil again....now reduce heat to simmer and cover. Cook for about 30 mins longer. Once ready - add about 2 tblsp of capers and chopped parsley for color - mix and serve on a warmed platter - family style - and present in the center of the table. Accompany with a large green salad of arugula, spinach and bib lettuce, sliced tomatoes, red onions, and cucumbers - dressed in a balsamic vinaigrette. Your choice of a light red wine - nothing to heavy or a chilled white would work fine with this dish.
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