Japan govt cuts economic assessment

Asian Market Update: Japan govt cuts economic assessment; NO camp prevailing in Scotland independence vote

Economic Data

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG NET MIGRATION: 4.7K V 4.5K; New 11-year high

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ JOB ADS M/M: +1.4 V -2.4% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 127.7 V 125.5 PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG PPI Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.2% PRIOR (first decline in 4 months)

- (US) NORTH AMERICA AUG SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.04 V 1.07 PRIOR (3rd consecutive month above parity)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +1.5%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi +0.6%, Shanghai -0.2%, Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 2,010

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold -0.3% at $1,223/oz, Oct crude oil -0.1% at $92.96/brl, Dec copper flat at $3.09/lb

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity below 1-yr, ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB and ¥200B in 3-5yr JGB as well as 1.8T in T-bills

- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥401.1B in foreign bonds v bought ¥770.1B in prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥136.8B in Japan stocks v bought ¥187.9B in prior week

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 3.25% 2018 bonds; Avg yield: 3.0681%; Bid-to-cover: 4.01x

- Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Sept 17th: $4.45T v $4.42T prior; M1 y/y change: 11.2% v 11.3% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.6% v 6.6% w/w

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Sterling is marching higher as the Scotland referendum is past its halfway point. With 24 out of 32 councils the No camp is winning by 54% to 46% margin, and analysts project a very likely victory for the loyalist side. GBP/USD has tested the upside of $1.65 (2-week high), up over 100pips from the start of the session, and EUR/GBP fell to a 2-year low below 0.7820.

- As forecasted in a recent press report, Japan govt cut its economic assessment in Sept for the first time in 5 months. Cabinet office pointed to slumping private consumption, which remains both weighed down by the sales tax increase and some rough weather over the past several weeks. Japan also maintained its somewhat cautious assessment for other key components such as capital spending, exports and industrial output. Separately, Japan PM Abe released an op-ed in the press, claiming structural reforms would continue and hinting at another corporate tax rate cut in 2015. Scotland relief appears to be driving overall bullish sentiment, resonating in Japan FX and equity trades. USD/JPY hit fresh 6-year high above 109.40 (up 70pips), while Nikkei225 is up nearly 2% in early afternoon session at its highest levels since late 2007.

- China's PBoC put out its Q3 survey of bankers indicating depositors are less willing to apply for mortgages and more respondents expecting home prices to decline. Note that this follows overnight liquidity injection via lower repo rate offering rate. Barclays economist said that move was meant as a "strong signal of a start of a rate-cutting cycle", but UBS claimed that lower repo rate diminished the possibility of an across-the-board reserve requirement cut.

Equities

US markets:

- CNQR: To be acquired by SAP for $129/shr; deal valued at $8.3B; +19.4% afterhours

- MCD: Raises quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.85/shr from $0.81; +0.5% afterhours

- LMT: Said to be close to securing a new $4B contract with DoD; Aims to cut costs by 2-4% in the next F-35 contract - financial press; +0.2% afterhours

- HD: Q3 sales "on plan"; Announces completed malware elimination and enhanced encryption of payment data in all US; Guides FY14 EPS higher to $4.54 (including items, incl charges and gains) v $4.49e (prior $4.52); Affirms Rev growth +4.8%; +0.1% afterhours

- ORCL: Reports Q1 $0.62 v $0.64e, R$8.60B v $8.78Be; authorized repurchase of up to additional $13.0B of common stock (7.0% of market cap); Guides Q2 Non-GAAP $0.68-0.72 v $0.74e (constant currency), Rev +2-6% (constant currency) - conf call; Names President Mark Hurd and Safra Catz as CEOs; Ellison to Exec Chairman and CTO, effective immediately; -1.8% afterhours

- VMI: Lowers FY14 EPS guidance to $8.70-8.90 v $9.50e ($9.35-9.65 prior); -2.3% afterhours

- RHT: Reports Q2 $0.41 v $0.38e, R$445.9M v $435Me; Guides Q3 $0.40 v $0.40e, R$449-452M v $455Me; Raises FY15 $1.53-1.55 v $1.53e, R$1.770-1.785B v $1.78Be - conf call; -3.1% afterhours

- BABA: PRICES IPO AT $68/SHR AT THE HIGH END OF $66-68 RANGE (in line with earlier forecast)

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Fast Retailing 9983.JP +3.5% (sees profit in US business); Qantas Airways QAN.AU -1.4% (shareholder lowers stake; block trade); Sands China 1928.HK +1.7%, Wynn Macau 1128.HK +4.8%, MGM China 2282.HK +3.2% (momentum in Macau casinos)

- Consumer staples: Blackcow Food 002387.CN +4.6% (private placement plan)

- Materials: Sirius Resources SIR.AU +2.8% (JCP Investment initiates stake)

- Energy: AWE Ltd AWE.AU +3.4% (shareholder raises stake)