Australian Retail Sales overview
Australian retail sales are due today at 01.30 GMT expected at 0.3% against -0.1% previous. However, analysts at Westpac expect it to post a sluggish 0.2% due to ‘cautiously pessimistic’ consumer sentiment, a drag from price discounting, and above average rainfall across most of the eastern states. "With this, Q1 real retail sales are expected to rise 0.5%. The expected 0.4% rise in nominal sales comes with a 0.1% drop in retail prices suggested by the CPI detail."
How could retail sales affect AUD/USD?
On a better retail sales print, we could see some fresh demand for the Aussie that is otherwise consolidating the recent slide this month from the mid point of the 0.75 handle.
If history is anything to go by, we have seen ranges as high as 50 pips on the release of this data. 0.7400 is the first key upside target for an attempt at the recent double-top highs at 0.7420 resistance. 0.7440 comes thereafter as the 27the April low. To the downside, a poor print could open up the mid point of the 0.73 handle as the 4th Jan highs and the lowest level since then.
Key notes:
- AUDUSD: Being short is still preferred - Jim Langlands
- AUD/USD analysis: bearish, heading towards 0.7250
About Aussie Retail sales:
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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