Analysts from Danske Bank, take a look into next week events in the US, that include a Fed meeting and the US official employment report.
Key Quotes:
“In the US, the coming week brings several important events. The first is the FOMC meeting ending on Wednesday. This meeting is one of the small meetings (no updated projections and no press conference) and we do not expect any changes in monetary policy or any major changes in the statement.”
“The labour market report for April is due on Friday. The report for March was surprisingly weak – also taking into account the weather effects. Our models based on PMIs point to yet another weak jobs report, with an increase in employment of around 100,000. However, given that the report for March was very weak, we expect the figures for April to reflect some correction of these numbers. Hence, we expect total jobs growth of 170,000, with manufacturing contributing 15,000 and services 140,000. Our estimate of job creation is a bit below consensus among analysts, probably because we do not expect as strong a correction of the March numbers as other analysts given that February was stronger than usual.”
“Note that we are due to get ADP employment for April on Wednesday, which should give us a first impression of the shape of the labour market in April.”
“On Monday, we also get ISM manufacturing figures for April and final PMI manufacturing figures for April. Over the past few months, we have seen a divergence between ISM, PMI and regional manufacturing indices. The preliminary PMI figures for April fell a bit back but the regional indices continued climbing higher. We estimate ISM fell further in April. Our models continue to point towards a deceleration of economic growth and, therefore, we put less weight on the regional manufacturing indices.”
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