Analysts at Nomura offered their fourth September Private Payrolls Tracking.
Key Quotes:
"211k. The labor market differential index from the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report increased to 6.3 for September, up 2.3 points from a revised figure of 4.0 in August (previously reported as 2.6)."
"The September print is the highest reading since August 2007, just months before the start of the Great Recession, and the third consecutive month that the index has registered a positive reading. It’s been a long road back. It finally appears that labor market conditions have improved to the point where consumers on balance feel that the labor market is starting to favor the job seeker rather than the employer."
"The better-than-expected improvement in this index plus upward revision to the prior month pushed up our private payrolls tracking estimate to 211k from 208k. The last update for the September private payrolls tracking model will be on 29 September."
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