Raj Ian G Thijm, MBA
Raj Time and Cycles
In my last public blogpost, I was looking for a 5/27 high +/-1
From the 5/30 Raj T&C Weekend Email: “The dominant cycle suggests we are generally higher into 5/27-31H at 2100+ SPX. It then suggest a few days pullback into 6/1-2L at the 6/12 Solar and 6/2 Geo CIT, followed by another rally into 6/10H, retesting the 5/20/15 ATH at 2134.72 SPX”
Actual: We rallied into a 5/31H,1 day from the 5/27H, declined into 6/1 Low at 2085.10 SPX, chopped for 2 days into 6/3 double bottom, before we rallied into 6/8 High at 2120.55 SPX so far. The Cycle High may have arrived 2 days earlier. Normally the cycle is exact or off by 1 day and at one other time at the 4/22 High, it was off 2 days. Swing traders that were long from the 5/19 Low at 2026 SPX made 60+ SP’s profits today, which is $3000/Emini Contract (each mini SP is $50/point) and those that just went long from the 6/1L at 2085 SPX made 17 SP’s or $850/Emini contract today.
The dominant cycle saw 14 “hits” and 1 miss: 2/11L, 2/24L, 3/4H, 3/11L(-1), 3/17H (miss), 3/28L(-1), 3/31H(+1), 4/12L, 4/22H (-2), 4/27H, 5/4L, 5/6L, 5/12H (-2), 5/19L, 5/27H, 6/1L
What’s Next: We make a 6/10+/-2 major swing High of the Month and start a volatile decline. The dominant cycle is a historic cycle that predicts exact Highs and Lows +/-1-2 days. The cycle suggests to be prepared for some large volatile swings, both Up and down in the coming weeks.
Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involve risks. Trade at your own Risk. Do your own homework. The contents of this blog are for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Japanese Yen trades just shy of 157.00 versus the USD
The Japanese Yen weakens across the board after BoJ announced its policy decision. A shortlived spike in the Yen may be testament to an attempt by the Japanese authorities to intervene. US PCE Price Index shows higher-than-expected inflation but does little to impact USD/JPY which almost touches 157.00.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.
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