Elsewhere, focus has been on AUD/USD ahead of the RBA rate decision on March 3 rd with Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and Westpac all bringing forward their forecasts for a 25bps rate cut next week, and with markets now pricing in a 54% chance of a rate cut. However, a video of RBA watcher McCrann was passed around desks with the commentator suggesting he expects the RBA to stand pat on rates for the moment which saw AUD/USD edge higher in the session.
From a central bank perspective, the Turkish Central Bank cut their benchmark repurchase rate and its overnight borrowing rate by 25bps, while also cutting its overnight lending rate by 50bps. This saw a whipsaw reaction in USD/TRY upon the release as the overnight lending rate cut was greater than analysts had forecasted, only to pare the move higher after the smaller than expected cut in the overnight borrowing rate. In related news, the subsequent USD strength sent USD/TRY to record highs today with analysts at SocGen predicting the TRY to weaken further.
Looking ahead, next week sees a slew of rate decisions from the BoE, ECB and RBA with the ECB potentially announcing a start date for their QE programme. Furthermore, market focus will also be on US NFP with analysts expecting a reading of 240K, which is still above the key psychological level of 200K, but slightly lower than the previous headline number of 257K.
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