USD/CHF - Successful test thus far of the support at 0.9469

EUR/USD 

Failing thus far to make any higher high.

• EUR/USD is consolidating after its steep decline. Despite yesterday's break of the hourly resistance at 1.2716 (10/10/2014 high), prices have thus far failed to make any higher high. A resistance stands at 1.2816. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2651 (intraday low) and 1.2584 (07/10/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) opens the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). Intermediate supports are given by 1.2500 (psychological support) and 1.2466 (28/08/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Moving sideways.

• GBP/USD seems to move within a horizontal range between the support at 1.5944 and the hourly resistance at 1.6227 (09/10/2014 high). Another resistance can be found at 1.6287. An hourly support lies at 1.6009 (10/10/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Despite the recent short-term bearish momentum, we favour a temporary rebound near the support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A resistance lies at 1.6525.

Buy limit 2 units at 1.6009, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.6220, remaining at 1.6410, Stop: 1.5934

USD/JPY 

Challenging the support at 106.81.

• USD/JPY has declined and is now challenging the support at 106.81 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly resistances can be found at 107.59 (intraday high) and 108.18 (intraday high) and 108.74. Another support lies at 106.04.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. Despite a probable medium-term consolidation phase after the successful test of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high, see also the 50% retracement from the 1998's top), a gradual move higher is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF 

Successful test thus far of the support at 0.9469.

• USD/CHF has thus far successfully tested its recent low at 0.9469. Hourly resistances stand at 0.9552 (intraday high) and 0.9593 (10/10/2014 high). Another support can be found at 0.9433 (18/09/2014 high).

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. As a result, the recent weakness is seen as a countertrend move. A key support can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low). A resistance now lies at 0.9691 (06/10/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD 

Moving towards its recent highs.

• USD/CAD remains strong as can be seen by the short-term ascending triangle. A test of the resistance area between 1.1271 (03/10/2014 high) and 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) is expected. An hourly support lies at 1.1161 (10/10/2014 low). A significant support stands area between 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low) and 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. A break of the resistance at 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) would confirm this bullish outlook. Strong supports are given by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0750) and 1.0621 (03/07/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.1289, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.1435, remaining at 1.1675, Stop: 1.1234

AUD/USD

Bouncing.

• AUD/USD has bounced near the key support at 0.8643/0.8660 (24/01/2014 low). Prices seem to weaken near the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement (0.8804). A key resistance stands at 0.8897. An hourly support lies at 0.8736 (intraday low).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Despite the recent successful test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low), the long-term technical structure favours further decline. A key resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY 

Challenging the 200-day moving average.

• GBP/JPY has broken the key support at 172.99 and is now challenging the support implied by the 200-day moving average. A key support lies at 169.51. Hourly resistances can be found at 173.32 (intraday high) and 175.15 (07/10/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds. However, the sharp reversal near the psychological threshold at 180.00 favours a phase of consolidation. Another resistance can be found at 183.98 (50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY 

Unimpressive bounce thus far.

• EUR/JPY bounced near the key support at 135.73 yesterday. However, the current failure to break the hourly resistance at 136.65 (09/10/2014 low) suggests a weak buying interest. Another hourly resistance lies at 137.07 (10/10/2014 high). Another support lies at 134.11.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. However, the declining slope of the 200-day moving average suggests a weakening long-term trend. A resistance can be found at 141.23 (19/09/2014 high).

Sell stop 2 units at 135.45, Obj: Close 1 unit at 134.15, remaining at 131.65, Stop: 135.99

EUR/GBP

Bullish breakout at 0.7889.

• EUR/GBP has broken the key resistance at 0.7889 (23/09/2014 high). Another resistance can be found at 0.7952 (intraday high). Hourly supports now stand at 0.7885 (intraday low) and 0.7850 (10/10/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Weakening.

• EUR/CHF continues to move broadly sideways. An hourly support lies at 1.2075 (13/10/2014 low), while more significant supports stand at 1.2053 (30/09/2014 low) and 1.2045. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2097 (intraday high) and 1.2118 (intraday high).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is unlikely to be broken. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the medium-term.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Challenging the resistance at 1236.

• Gold continues to bounce and is now challenging the resistance area between 1236 and 1243. Hourly supports can be found at 1214 (13/10/2014 low) and 1203 (07/10/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 1258.

• In the long-term, despite the successful test of the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low), the underlying downtrend and the recent 4-year lows in silver favour an eventual break lower. Resistances can be found at 1243 (16/09/2014 high) and 1278 (04/09/2014 high). Other supports can be found at 1157 (28/07/2010 low) and 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD) 

Consolidating below the resistance at 17.74.

• Silver has thus far failed to break the resistance at 17.74. However, the short-term succession of higher lows remains intact. Hourly support can be found at 17.21 (10/10/2014 low) and 17.06. A key resistance stands at 18.02.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.