EUR/GBP - Declining toward its July's lows

EUR/USD

Approaching the key support at 1.3105.

• EUR/USD continues to move lower and is now close to its key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low). Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.3221 (28/08/2014 high) and 1.3297 (22/08/2014 high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. A long-term decline towards the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) is favoured. However, in the shorter term, monitor the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) given the general oversold conditions. A key resistance lies at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging its declining trendline.

• GBP/USD is bouncing after its bullish intraday reversal made on 25 August. A decisive break of the hourly resistance area given by 1.6601 and the declining trendline (around 1.6625) is needed to suggest weakening selling pressures. Other hourly resistances can be found at 1.6679 and 1.6739. Hourly supports stand at 1.6537 and 1.6501 (25/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average) invalidates the positive outlook caused by the previous 4-year highs. However, the lack of medium-term bearish reversal pattern and the short-term oversold conditions do not call for an outright bearish view. A key support stands at 1.6460 (24/03/2014 low).

Long 2 units at 1.6611, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.6883, remaining at 1.7165, Stop: 1.6527 (Entered: 2014-08-28)

USD/JPY

Consolidating.

• USD/JPY is consolidating after having failed to hold above its key resistance at 104.13. Monitor the support at 103.50 (see also the rising trendline) and the resistance at 104.49. Another support lies at 102.91 (intraday low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Pushing higher.

• USD/CHF remains well supported as can be seen by today's new highs. Hourly supports stand at 0.9139 (29/08/2014 low) and 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. A first upside potential is 0.9207, implied by the March-May double-bottom formation. Key resistances stand at 0.9250 (07/11/2013 high) and 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The support area around 1.0797 has held thus far.

• USD/CAD has thus far successfully tested the support area given by 1.0809 (50% retracement) and 1.0797. The subsequent bounce has breached the hourly resistance at 1.0869 (28/08/2014 high). Another hourly resistance lies at 1.0908 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

The rising channel has held thus far.

• AUD/USD has broken the resistance at 0.9345, validating a short-term double-bottom formation with a target at 0.9450. However, the failure to break the resistance at 0.9374 is a concern. Monitor the support implied by the rising channel (around 0.9320). Another support can be found at 0.9301 (intraday low).

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Improving.

• GBP/JPY is pushing higher after its successful test of the support at 171.63. The resistance area given by the declining trendline (around 172.92) and 173.51 is challenged. Another resistance lies at 174.22. An initial support can now be found at 172.63 (intraday low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

The support at 136.37 has held thus far.

• EUR/JPY has thus far successfully tested its hourly support at 136.37 (12/08/2014 low). An hourly resistance lies at 137.42, while a key resistance stands at 138.03. A key support can be found at 135.73.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The recent successful test of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) favours further sideways moves. A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Declining toward its July's lows.

• EUR/GBP continues to weaken after its successful test of the key resistance at 0.8034. The break of the support at 0.7916 (06/08/2014 low) opens the way for a test of the support at 0.7874. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.7931 (intraday high) and 0.7970 (20/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/CHF is trying to bounce after having breached the support at 1.2063 (10/12/2012 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2093 (26/08/2014 high) and 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high). An hourly support now lies at 1.2049 (28/08/2014 low).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Unimpressive bounce thus far.

• Gold has bounced near the low of its symmetrical triangle. An hourly resistance can be found at 1304 (intraday high, see also the declining channel). Hourly supports now stand at 1280 (27/08/2014 low) and 1273 (21/08/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Monitor the support at 19.32.

• Silver made a significant bearish intraday reversal on 28 August, favouring a cautious view. The hourly support implied by the short-term rising trendline (around 19.51) is challenged. A key support stands at 19.32. Resistances can be found at 19.91 and 20.18.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.