USDCHF: Weakening

EUR/USD

Monitor the resistance at 1.3664.

• EUR/USD rose significantly yesterday. However, we continue to favour an eventual decline towards the support at 1.3503 as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3664 (03/07/2014 high). Hourly supports can now be found at 1.3602 (09/07/2014 low) and 1.3576.

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD is consolidating near the top of its rising channel. The mild price correction thus far suggests persistent buying interest. Hourly supports lie at 1.7086 and 1.7007 (27/06/2014 low). A resistance stands at 1.7180 (04/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.7190, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7328, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.7138.

USD/JPY

Approaching the support at 101.24.

• USD/JPY has weakened near the resistance at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high). Prices are now approaching the support at 101.24. An hourly resistance lies at 101.86 (09/07/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Weakening.

• USD/CHF has failed to break the resistance implied by its declining channel. Monitor the hourly support at 0.8886 (intraday low). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.8938 (09/07/2014 high) and 0.8959 (07/07/2014 high). Another support lies at 0.8857.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The bullish momentum remains thus far elusive.

• USD/CAD has bounced close to the key support implied by its long-term rising trendline. However, a break of the hourly resistance at 1.0697 (27/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest something more than a temporary bounce. Another resistance can be found at 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high). The hourly support at 1.0649 (61.8% retracement of the recent bounce) has been breached. Another support lies at 1.0621.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0643) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

New leg lower underway?

• AUD/USD is showing signs of weakness after having retraced part of its recent sharp decline. A second leg lower (echoing the first one from the peak at 0.9505) is likely underway. Key supports stand at 0.9319 and 0.9206. An hourly resistance now lies at 0.9457.

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Monitor the support implied by the rising channel.

• GBP/JPY continues to weaken. A test of the support implied by the rising channel (around 173.41) is likely. Another support stands at 172.38. Hourly resistances can be found at 174.57 (08/07/2014 high) and 175.37 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Remains weak.

• EUR/JPY has bounced near the support implied by its rising channel (around 138.13). However, prices need to break the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average (around 139.33) to indicate exhaustion in selling pressures. An hourly resistance now lies at 138.83 (07/07/2014 high). Another support stands at 137.71.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong support can already be found at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Approaching the resistance at 0.7973.

• EUR/GBP continues to bounce. An hourly resistance can be found at 0.7973 (03/07/2014 high). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 0.8034 is needed to invalidate the bearish technical structure. An hourly support lies at 0.7915 (07/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8153 (29/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

The resistance at 1.2166 remains thus far intact.

• EUR/CHF is fading near the hourly resistance at 1.2166. Furthermore, as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high), the technical structure continues to favour further weakness. Hourly supports now stand at 1.2148 (08/07/2014 low) and 1.2134.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Challenging its recent highs.

• Gold continues to consolidate. The short-term succession of higher lows indicates persistent buying interest. The key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement) is challenged. Another resistance lies at 1343. Hourly supports can be found at 1312 (07/07/2014 low) and 1305.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Grinding higher.

• Silver continues to move within its short-term rising channel. Monitor the resistance at 21.29 as a failure to make a new higher high would suggest a weakening buying interest. Hourly supports stand at 20.83 (07/07/2014 low) and 20.58. Another resistance can be found at 21.79.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.