USD/CHF: Challenging its declining channel

EUR/USD

Weakening.

• EUR/USD has broken its short-term rising channel after having stopped near the 38.2% retracement of its previous decline. A fall towards the support at 1.3503 is likely. An hourly support can be found at 1.3565 (20/06/2014 low). Hourly resistances now stand at 1.3621 (intraday high) and 1.3664 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD has broken the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.7096 (01/07/2014 low, see also the short-term rising trendline) holds. Another support lies at 1.7007 (27/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Improving.

• USD/JPY has broken to the upside out of its declining channel (see also the 200 day moving average). Prices are now consolidating near the resistance at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high). Another resistance lies at 102.80 (04/06/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 101.97 (04/07/2014 low) and 101.65 (intraday high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. A break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Challenging its declining channel.

• USD/CHF continues to improve and is now testing the resistance implied by the declining channel (around 0.8961). Another resistance lies at 0.8975. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8926 (intraday low) and 0.8886 (intraday low).

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Succession of lower highs intact thus far.

• USD/CAD remains weak despite the proximity of the key support implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0643). Another strong support stands at 1.0559. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.0697 (27/06/2014 high) and 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0643) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Bouncing.

• AUD/USD is bouncing after its sharp decline. However, as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.9388, the short-term technical structure favours further weakness. Key supports stand at 0.9319 and 0.9206. Another hourly resistance can be found at 0.9444 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Consolidating.

• GBP/JPY has broken the key resistance at 174.85, confirming the underlying uptrend. Hourly supports can be found at 174.51(intraday low) and 173.92. An hourly resistance now stands at 175.37 (03/07/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Long 1 unit at 174.20, Obj: Close remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.82 (Entered: 2014-07-01).

EUR/JPY

Remains weak.

• EUR/JPY needs to break the resistance implied by its 200 day moving average (around 139.28) to indicate exhaustion in selling pressures. Hourly supports are given by 138.55 (02/07/2014 low) and the rising channel (around 138.11). Another resistance can be found at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

The underlying downtrend has further to go.

• EUR/GBP has broken the key support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low)/0.7959 (16/06/2014 low). An hourly resistance lies at 0.7973 (03/07/2014 high). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 0.8033 (intraday low) is needed to indicate some exhaustion in the selling pressures.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8153 (29/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Challenging the resistance at 1.2166.

• EUR/CHF is bouncing. The hourly resistance at 1.2166 is challenged. However, a break of the resistance at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest something more than a temporary bounce. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2152 (intraday low) and 1.2134.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Consolidating.

• Gold continues to consolidate near the key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement). Monitor the support at 1305, as a break lower would open the way for a deeper correction. Another resistance lies at 1343, whereas another support can be found at 1285.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Monitor the short-term rising channel.

• Silver is showing signs of weakness. Monitor the supports implied by the short-term rising channel (around 20.85) and the rising trendline (around 20.79). An hourly resistance now lies at 21.29 (02/07/2014 high). Another support stands at 20.41, whereas another resistance can be found at 21.79.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.