Greece Deal Off the Table

Economic data

- (IE) Ireland May Property Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 13.8% v 15.8% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 19th: +1.6% v -5.5% prior
- (TR) Turkey Jun Real Sector Confidence (Seasonally Adj): 101.5 v 103.9 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA (unadj): 104.9 v 109.0 prior
- (TR) Turkey Jun Capacity Utilization: 75.1% v 74.9% prior
- (CL) Chile May PPI M/M: 2.2% v 1.6% prior
- (US) Q1 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Personal Consumption: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (BE) Belgium Jun Business Confidence: -3.9 v -5.0e
- (MX) Mexico Apr Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP): -0.3% v 2.3%e
- (US) DOE Crude: -4.93M v -2.5Me; Gasoline: +0.68M v -0.5Me; Distillate: +1.84M v +1.0Me

The brief outburst of optimism regarding a last-minute deal for Greece collided with reality this morning. As of writing, the DJIA is off 0.31%, the S&P500 is down 0.21% and the Nasdaq is giving up 0.13%.

Midway through the European session, there were headlines stating that PM Tsipras said that the Europeans had rejected the latest concessions from Greece, while other officials said the creditors' stance suggests that they don't really want a deal. Another round of counterproposals were exchanged and Greece reportedly rejected them, although the state of play remains somewhat opaque this morning. Bond yields are trading in a much more subdued range for a second day, with the 10-year bund yield down three bps to 0.841% and the UST yield down one bps around 2.40%. After the big slide lower seen on Monday and Tuesday, EUR/USD traded in a tight range between 1.1170 and 1.1235 today.

The third and final reading of US Q1 GDP saw a decent upward revision but still left the figure in contraction territory. To review: the advance reading was +0.2%, the preliminary figure was -0.7% and today's final number was -0.2% (the year ago final figure was -2.1%). The final consumer spending component was revised up to +2.1% from the +1.8% preliminary reading, while both imports and exports were revised higher.

The API weekly inventory report saw its third consecutive drawdown and today's DoE inventory drawdown was much larger than expected. WTI futures have been stuck in the $61 handle for most of the last 24 hours, while brent has pivoted in a tight range around $64.50. In the background, the Iran nuclear deal is under a great deal of pressure after Iran's parliament passed a bill banning inspections of its military sites and talk went around that the June 30th deadline for a deal was being pushed back.

In earnings, shares of homebuilder Lennar are up 3.7% on strong second-quarter results. The firm's orders, deliveries and backlog of homes were up double digits. Other major homebuilders were up as well. Monsanto is off 4.7% after the firm's fourth-quarter guidance came in well below expectations and it warned it was not expecting much improvement in business conditions in FY16. In other big equity movers, BOX is up more than 8% after entering a big new collaboration deal with IBM. FitBit is off 6% or so as holders take profits after an impressive post-IPO run.

Looking Ahead

- 12:00 (FR) France May Net Change in Jobseekers: +6.0Ke v +26.2K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.542Me v 3.536M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 15:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 4.50%
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 105 prior
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Apr Trade Balance: No est v $0.3b prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v -6.8% prior