Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR slowly recovers and makes its way through 1.1000. First resistance comes at 1.1020 as this is the H4 Senkou Span B price and breaing of it will escape from the negative H4 cloud which can be a good start ot the future recovery above 1.1100, which is the next resistance. The price is now supported by 1.0910. EUR has some upside potential but is possible to have some choppy trade and on Thursday and Friday to test 1.1100 and above. Volatility is very low bacause of the summer season and most traders will wait for the 20th of august when Greece is due to pay a huge amount of money. So it is quite possible to continue the consolidation to bullish mode until then.
GOLD seems has bulit some support above 1090, but Daily and Weekly indicators are heavy bearish. First resistance is 1104 and first support is at 1090. Around 1116 we shall face strong resistance of the H4 negative cloud, and any further recovery is possible only on a Daily close above 1130 which is pretty far from the current levels. I expect some range trade for this week between 1116 and 1090. any break below the support may cause another 20 USD slide for example.
NZD still is not able to close the day above 0.6625, this will be the signal for a recovery which is much needed at the moment however slide continues and the current support is 0.6500. Any break below 0.6560 will target 0.6500 and below once ahain.
AUD dropped again on Friday to 0.7260, the process here is quite similar to NZD. Below 0.7310 we are bearish on H4. H1 shows some recovery signs but the price is capped by 0.73-0.7310 resistance area and breaking above is needed to start any recovery. Any drop below 0.7280 will target 0.7250 first.
JPY has stopped the dollar progress at least for now. JPY is in a recovery mode pushing the price to the downside below 123.80. As long as we are below this we are bearish and the first target is 123.20 then 122.80 and finally 121.40. Below the last downside will gain more fresh power. Upside will be restored on a Daily close above 124.00.
GBP consolidates as the price was not able to stay above 1.5600 for a long time. first resistance is at 1.5560 and is followed by 1.5610. Only on a Daily close above the last the upside may continue, but seems summer is a lazy season and noone wants to risk at this low volatility market. Support is at 1.5410 and this may be tested before any new upside wave.
RUB continues to loose price slowly. We are bullish above 56.75, but quick drops to 56.30 are possibe in order to create some volatility. Drops to 55.60 won't destroy the bullish outlook this week.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.1000, SL 1.0990 TP 1.1020-1.1040-1.1080-1.1100-1.1130
SHORT EUR below 1.0980 SL 1.0990 TP 1.0960-1.0935-1.0900-1.0850
LONG GOLD above 1092 SL 1089 TP 1103-1110-1116
SHORT GOLD below 1088 SL 1091 TP 1079-1072-1067
Good luck!
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