Daily Forecast - 01 October 2014
USDCHF Spot
USDCHF in a strong bull trend & as expected beat 9530/32 shooting to our target of 9595/9600 & topped exactly here!! We are so overbought at this stage that profit taking is likely but not a big sell off & offers buying opportunities. A drift lower to support at 9530/25 with a bounce from here expected but longs need stops below 9505. A break lower could then target 9485/80 for the next buying opportunity. Unlikely the pair will fall any further but if 9450/45 is seen this should be an excellent opportunity to enter longs with stops below 9430.
Immediate resistance at 9595/9600 again of course & we should struggle here today. Selling to shorts in a bull trend is never wise but it may be worth trying small shorts here today in the hope of a quick turn, with stops above 9625. Be ready to jump back in to longs on a break higher & look for 9650/60.
AUDJPY Spot
AUDJPY in a strong 3 week bear trend but did reach as far as strong resistance at 9590/95 as predicted for a perfect selling opportunity with stops above 9615. This trade worked perfectly keeping the outlook negative for a return to last week's low at 9540/35 & a quick 50 pip profit. A break below the 2 day low at 9510/08 is likely & should trigger stops in the market to target important key weekly support at 9470/60. It is possible we see a low for the week here, despite the strong bear trend. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 9430.
Immediate resistance at 9555/65 is likely hold a move higher but above here look for a selling opportunity at 9580/90 with stops above 9610.
EURGBP Spot
EURGBP in a 12 month bear trend & broke 7781 which as stated yesterday was always likely in a bear trend. The pair went for our next target & a test of important 2012 lows at 7753. This is also 7 year Fibonacci support & we advised to exit shorts & try longs with wide stops below 7725. The pair bottomed just 5 pips early. IT IS TOO RISKY NOW TO RUN SHORTS ANY FURTHER AFTER YESTERDAY'S BOUNCE FROM THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT. Again today the 7765/55 area is a medium term buying opportunity with stops below 7725.
Immediate resistance at 7795/7800 but above here is more positive & targets 7825/30. A good chance of a high for the day but shorts need stops above 7850.
EURJPY Spot
EURJPY held resistance at 139.05/15 & the break of 138.70/65 triggered losses as expected to our target & good support at 138.15/10. We advised to exit shorts & try longs AND be prepared to add to longs at 137.95/85 with a good chance of a bounce from here. We stated this area could mark the low for the 2 week correction. The pair magically bottomed at 137.90!!! So far so good & an excellent bounce to 138.80 has already provided a potential 70 pip profit. We need to hold above 138.70 to continue higher & target strong resistance at 139.15/20. Exit longs & try shorts expecting a high for the day,with stops above 139.40.
Failure to hold above 138.70 however sees a drift lower to 138.35/30. If we continue lower look for a second buying opportunity at 138.00/90, with stops below 137.65.
GBPJPY Spot
GBPJPY in a longer & short term bull trend. We have been pausing for breath over the past week to relieve the overbought conditions before the next leg higher. Watch the 4 day high at 178.09/16. Above we can target last week's high at 178.60/70. A break above here is then required to re-start the bull trend & target trend line resistance at 179.20/25. Above here we look for a retest of September highs at 180.60/66.
The 4 day low of 177.25/10 is key for today. A break lower does look possible & should target support at 176.45/35 for a buying opportunity with stops below 176.00. Go with a break lower however as we could then target 175.25/00. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 174.50.
USDCAD Spot
USDCAD in a 3 month bull run & had no trouble breaking resistance at 1.1155/60 as expected to hit our target of 1.1220/25. As I write we have topped exactly here over night but stick with the bulls & look for 1.1245/50 to exit any longs. Above we meet this year's high at 1.1278 & can try shorts within the 1.1255/75 band, with stops above 1.1295.
Immediate support is 1.1185/80 & could hold the downside but below here a buying opportunity at 1.1155/1145, with stops below 1.1125.
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