Global deflation & weak pass-through give MPC some room, & trade data more positive

  • The most important releases next week are the Fed’s FOMC meeting (Wednesday, 29 January), the SARB’s MPC meeting (also on Wednesday), and SA's preliminary trade balance for December 2013 (Friday), which will determine the trade balance for Q4:13 and inform expectations of the current account for that quarter.

  • We concur with consensus expectations for the Fed to announce its intention to cut its asset purchases by $10bn to $65bn per month on Wednesday, and for the SARB's MPC to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5%. On Friday, due to traditionally weak imports in the month of December, which have averaged -19%m/m over the last 10 years, consensus is for trade data to show a surplus of R2.5bn, slightly below our expectation of R3bn.

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