Market Movers ahead
- The minutes from the 29-30 July FOMC meeting due on Wednesday will attract attention, as the FOMC's communication took a more hawkish turn in the latest statement.
- In the US we expect manufacturing PMI to stay unchanged at 55.8 in August and look for an increase in consumer prices. We expect the core CPI to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y and the headline CPI to come out at 0.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y.
- In the euro area we expect manufacturing PMI to increase marginally to 52.0, reflecting a slight increase in the output and new export orders index in July.
- We expect the Chinese Markit/HSBC manufacturing PMI to improve to 51.9 in August from a final reading of 51.7 in July.
- In Japan manufacturing PMI should give us some important information about the strength of the economy in the wake of hike in the consumption tax in April.
- In Scandinavia, the main event next week will be the release of Norwegian Q2 GDP. We estimate that mainland GDP rose by 0.8% q/q in Q2, supported by higher global growth and a weaker NOK.
Global macro and market themes
- Euro recovery weakening due to temporary external headwinds.
- Short-term picture still weak but euro recovery to gain pace later this year.
- US and Chinese recovery to moderate.
- Risk appetite recovers for now while bond yields hit new lows.
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