USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 16-20

The Canadian dollar was almost unchanged last week, as USD/CAD closed the week at 1.3319. The upcoming week has seven events on the schedule, including retail sales and inflation levels. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

There were no major releases out of Canada last week, and the Canadian dollar had a quiet week. In the US, numbers were mixed. PPI and Retail Sales missed estimates, but UoM Consumer Sentiment beat the forecast. Earlier in the week, US jobless claims repeated at 276 thousand, coming in above the forecast for a second straight week. The Fed is leaning towards a hike, but is not yet fully committed to the move.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.

1. Manufacturing Sales: Monday, 13:30. The week kicks off with this key event. The indicator came in at -0.2% in August, above the estimate of -0.8%. Still, this was the first decline in four months. The markets are expecting better news in September, with an estimate of 0.3%. 

2. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 13:30. This indicator is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Canadian dollars in order to but domestic securities. The indicator bounced back in August with a reading of C$3.11 billion, beating the estimate of C$2.21 billion. The upward swing is expected to continue, with an estimate of C$4.12 billion. 

3. Wholesale Sales: Thursday, 13:30. Wholesale Sales has struggled, as the indicator has posted only one gain in the past four months. In August, the indicator came in -0.1%, short of the estimate of +0.2%. Will we see a gain in the September release? 

4. Core Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. The indicator excludes the most volatile items which make up Retail Sales. The indicator has posted two straight readings of 0.0%, missing the estimate both times. The markets are hoping for a gain in the September report.
   

5. Core CPI: Friday, 13:30. Core CPI has been steady, posting two straight readings of 0.2%. The index excludes the most volatile items which make up CPI. 

6. CPI: Friday, 13:30. CPI continues to point to weak inflation levels, as the index slipped in September with a reading of -0.2%. This was shy of the forecast of -0.1%. 

7. Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator came in at 0.5% in August, easily beating the forecast of 0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3297 and dropped to a low of 1.3223. The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 1.3350 as resistance held firm at 1.3353 for a second straight week . USD/CAD closed the week at 1.3319.

Technical lines, from top to bottom

With USD/CAD posting sharp gains last week, we start at higher levels:

We begin with resistance at 1.3759.

1.3587 was a cap in March 2004.

1.3443 has held firm since late September.

1.3353 remained intact for a second straight week.

1.3213 held firm in support as the pair dipped before recovering.

1.3165 is the next support line.

1.3063 is protecting the symbolic 1.30 line.

The very round line of 1.2900 is the final line of support for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

With the recent excellent Nonfarm Payrolls fueling speculation of a rate hike, the October CPI report and Fed minutes could give an undecided Fed some guidance and, should be treated as key market-movers. It could well be a busy week for USD/CAD.