EUR/USD
Strengthening.
EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher. Daily resistance lies at 1.1387 (20/11/2015 high). Hourly support may be found at 1.0711 (05/01/2016 low). Yet, expected to show further consolidation.
In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).
GBP/USD
Lack of follow-through.
GBP/USD' bullish momentum short-term momentum has faded. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.4668 (08/02/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.4081 (21/01/2015 low). Yet, the technical structure is still positive. Expected to show further consolidation.
The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.
USD/JPY
Bearish breakout.
USD/JPY has erased hourly support at 115.98 (20/01/2016 low). Hourly resistance lies can be found at 123.76 (18/11/2015 high). Expected to show further decline.
The strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) has been broken. We start favouring a long-term bearish bias. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems now less likely. Another key support can be found at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low).
USD/CHF
Short-term bearish momentum is growing.
USD/CHF is definitely back to bearish.. Hourly support is located at 0.9786 (14/12/2015 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 1.0328 (27/11/2015 high). Expected to show continued decline.
In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias.
USD/CAD
Monitoring 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
USD/CAD is now pausing below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3980. Daily resistance can be found at 1.4690 (20/01/2015 high). Expected to show further short-term upside move.
In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).
AUD/USD
Trading sideways.
AUD/USD is trading mixed. Hourly support lies at 0.6827 (15/01/2015 low) while hourly resistance is given at 0.7328 (31/12/2015 high). Even if the medium-term technical structure remains clearly negative, expected to show continued shortterm increase.
In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.
EUR/CHF
Consolidating after bullish move.
EUR/CHF's bullish momentum seems to be over. The pair is now heading south. Hourly resistance lies at 1.1200 (04/02/2016 high). Hourly support lies at 1.0733 (28/08/2015 low). Expected to show further consolidation towards 1.1000.
In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).
EUR/JPY
Riding again the downtrend channel.
EUR/JPY has bounced back on the upper bound implied by the downtrend channel. Hourly resistance lies at 134.60 (04/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high). Expected to further decline.
In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).
EUR/GBP
Bullish !
EUR/GBP is increasing toward 0.7800. Hourly resistance at 0.7755 (20/01/2015 high) has been broken.Hourly support can be found at 0.7525 (22/01/2015 low). Expected to show further increase.
In the long-term, the technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading well above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high).
GOLD (in USD)
Breaking 1191.00.
Gold continues to move higher. Hourly support is given at 1046 (03/12/2015 low) and hourly resistance at 1191 (15/10/2015 high) has been broken. Expected to show a deeper upside move.
In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. A break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).
SILVER (in USD)
Silver is taking off.
Silver keeps on pushing higher. Hourly support is given at 14.16 (29/01/2016 low). Hourly resistance given at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has been broken. The overall technical structure suggests further increase.
In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).
Crude Oil (in USD)
Back to bearish.
Crude is definitely not recovering. The technical structure remains clearly negative in a context of oil oversupply. Hourly support is given at 29.40 (03/02/2015 low) and 26.19 (20/01/2016 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 34.82 (28/01/2016 high). Expected to see further decline.
In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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