EUR/JPY - Bearish breakout of the rising wedge

EUR/USD

Moving sideways.

• EUR/USD weakened yesterday. However, a move towards the high of the horizontal range between the support at 1.1262 and the resistance at 1.1534 remains favoured. Hourly resistances now lie at 1.1380 and 1.1443 (13/02/2015 high). An hourly support can be found at 1.1320 (16/02/2015 low).

• In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle favours further weakness towards parity. As a result, any strength is likely to be temporary in nature. Key resistances stand at 1.1679 (21/01/2015 high) and 1.1871 (12/01/2015 high). Key supports can be found at 1.1000 (psychological support) and 1.0765 (03/09/2003 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Fading short-term bullish momentum?

• GBP/USD has recently weakened, suggesting a potential short-term weakening bullish momentum. Hourly supports are now given by 1.5340 (16/02/2015 low) and by the rising trendline (around 1.5303). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.5440 and 1.5486.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.5274 (06/01/2015 high) suggests renewed buying interest. Upside potentials are likely given by the resistances at 1.5620 (31/12/2014 high) and 1.5826 (27/11/2014 high). A strong support stands at 1.4814.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Remains weak.

• USD/JPY is trying to bounce. An hourly resistance can be found at 119.20 (13/02/2015 high). Hourly supports are now given by 118.18 (16/02/2015 low) and by the rising trendline (around 117.51). A key support stands at 116.66.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 110.09 (01/10/2014 high) holds. Even if a medium-term consolidation is likely underway, there is no sign to suggest the end of the long-term bullish trend. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favoured. A key support can be found at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Grinding higher.

• USD/CHF is challenging the resistance area between 0.9347/0.9368 (15/10/2014 low). The short-term succession of higher lows favours a bullish bias. Hourly supports stand at 0.9257 (12/02/2015 low) and 0.9170 (30/01/2015 low). Another resistance lies at 0.9554 (16/12/2014 low).

• Following the removal of the EUR/CHF floor, a major top has been formed at 1.0240. The break of the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off suggests a strong buying interest. Another key resistance stands at 0.9554 (16/12/2014 low), whereas a strong support can be found at 0.8353 (intraday low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Remains weak.

• USD/CAD remains weak near its hourly support at 1.2422. Another hourly support lies at 1.2352 (03/02/2015 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2537 (13/02/2015 high) and 1.2698.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose maximum upside potential is given by the strong resistance at 1.3065 (09/03/2009 high). The recent weakness is seen as a medium-term corrective phase. Key supports stand at 1.2314 (22/01/2015 low) and 1.2047 (intraday low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Trying to form a short-term base.

• AUD/USD has bounced near the key support at 0.7626, suggesting a potential short-term base formation. The hourly resistances at 0.7799 (intraday high) has been breached. A key resistance stands at 0.7876 (06/02/2015 high). An hourly support can be found at 0.7724 (13/02/2015 low).

• In the long-term, there is no sign to suggest the end of the current downtrend. The break of the strong support area between 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low) and 0.7947 (61.8% retracement of the 2009-2011 rise) favours further weakness. A key support stands at 0.7451 (18/05/2009 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Fading near its declining trendline.

• GBP/JPY has broken the key resistance area between 180.28 and 180.94, validating a bullish reversal pattern with an upside potential at 184.70. However, the failure to hold above the resistance implied by the declining trendline is a concern. Hourly supports can be found at 181.10 (12/02/2015 low) and 180.17 (09/02/2015 low). Hourly resistances stand at 184.19 (12/02/2015 high, see also the 61.8% retracement) and 184.96.

• In the long-term, the lack of any medium-term bearish reversal pattern favours a bullish bias. A support is given by the 200-day moving average (around 176.30), while a strong support area lies between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low). A strong resistances stands at 190.00 (psychological threshold).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Bearish breakout of the rising wedge.

• EUR/JPY has broken to the downside out of the rising wedge (see also the break of the hourly support at 134.72), confirming a bearish bias. Other hourly supports lie at 133.68 (09/02/2015 low) and 132.00. An hourly resistance can be found at 135.55 (16/02/2015 high), while a key resistance stands at 137.64.

• In the longer term, the break of the strong support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) invalidates the long-term succession of higher lows. The resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. More sideways moves are now expected. A key support stands at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Challenging the support at 0.7392.

• EUR/GBP continues to challenge the support at 0.7392. Hourly resistances stand at 0.7459 (09/02/2015 high) and 0.7515.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Monitor the test of the support at 0.7392 (28/01/2008 low). Another support can be found at 0.7089 (03/12/2007 low). A key resistance now lies at 0.7875 (25/12/2014 high).

Short 1 unit at 0.7563, Obj: Close remaining at 0.7260, Stop: 0.7535 (Entered: 2015-02-03)

EUR/CHF

Challenging the resistance at 1.0644.

• EUR/CHF is trying to find a new equilibrium after its massive sell-off. The key resistance at 1.0600/1.0644 is challenged. An hourly support now lies at 1.0533 (09/02/2015 high), while a support stands at 1.0414 (09/02/2015 low). Another resistance can be found at 1.0675 (61.8% retracement of the 15 January decline).

• The EUR/CHF is again a free-floating currency and has declined to uncharted water. The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on EUR/CHF. As a result, the key resistance at 1.0600 should be hard to break. A key support stands at 0.9715. Another key resistance stands at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low).

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Persistent selling pressures underway.

• Gold remains weak as can be seen by the current failure to break the hourly resistance at 1246 (10/02/2015 high). Supports stand at 1205 (08/01/2015 low) and 1168 (02/01/2015 low). Another hourly resistance lies at 1274 (05/02/2015 high).

• In the long-term, the break of strong resistance at 1255 (21/10/2014 high, see also the 200-day moving average) indicates an improving technical structure. However, the shape of this advance still looks like a countertrend move within an underlying downtrend and the declining channel suggests a limited upside potential. Another key resistance stands at 1345 (10/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Erasing its recent gains.

• Silver is declining sharply, invalidating the recent technical improvements. A key support stands at 16.55. Hourly resistances can now be found at 17.19 (intraday low) and 17.45 (13/02/2015 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Although the strong support at 14.66 (05/02/2010 low) has held thus far, the lack of any base formation continues to favour a long-term bearish bias. A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.