Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR has broken the negative daily cloud as expected however staying far from the negative cloud will be hard, and staying above it will be even harder. We have been below this cloud for almost 10 months. Weekly, H4 and H1 indicators are mixed to bullish, only Daily ones show possible downside move ahead. The pair is now supported by 1.1130 and the resistances are 1.1240 and 1.1290, finally 1.1400. If the current support is broken, the pair will look for support in the area 1.0950-1.1000. It is quite possible the EUR upside to continue for the next 2-3 days and then will be followed by a massive sell. The reason for this may be used the almost doubled NFP expectation on Friday. If the expecations are true we may even return below the negative cloud again, somewhere around 1.0650-1.0700. So be careful with long positions and do not allow more than 40 pips against you.
GOLD has made an upside attempt last week however the Daily negative cloud was too thick to break and the price returned back below 1198 reversal support-resistance level. For the moment we continue to move along the Daily Senkou Span A price level and this means that the metal will use 1177 as a support for another jump higher. You may try to enter long above that level, but with a tight SL.
NZD is under a downside pressure after several fails at 0.7730. We have a strong and wide resistance area between 0.7530 and 0.7565. But only if we have a H4 close above 0.7610 the upside may continue until that the outlook is bearish with target 0.7480. If we drop below 0.7450 downside pressure will increase further.
AUD is going south too because of the expectation for the RBA to cut the interest rate tomorrow. Current resistance is 0.7830 and the daily support is 0.7740. Breaking below may cause another 200 pips drop to 0.7540. Upside may be restored only on a Daily close above 0.7920, until that we are bearish here.
JPY continues to loose price as the dollar has built a support at 119.40-119.80. The resistance is now at 120.70 and breaking above will target 121.40 and 122.20. Weekly, Daily and H1 indicators are bullish only H4 is bearish for now.
GBP has reached 1.5500 last week but quickly returned back to 1.5150 support and may soon test again 1.5030 support. Breaking below will look for another support at 1.4960 and if this is broken too then 1.4850 follows. To the upside 1.5260 is the important resistance, once above the upside will continue to 1.5500
RUB makes another attempt to break below the 50.00 level, but for now this seems diffucult task. I thing that the RUB is not so powerful at this moment to make a successful break of the Daily SMA200 support. Reversal support is at 48.20. Only a Weekly close below this one will reverse the bullish outlook. Despite the pair seems bearish there is still a huge possibility of sudden dollar attack, so be extremely careful within the next 4-8 weeks.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.1215 SL 1.1200 TP 1.1245-1.1275-1.1320-1.1365-1.1400
SHORT EUR below 1.1140 SL 1.1155 TP 1.1080-1.1020-1.0955-1.0900-1.0840-1.0750
LONG GOLD above 1177 SL 1174 TP 1194-1198-1206-1212-1218-1224
SHORT GOLD below 1191 SL 1194 TP 1178-1166-1158-1151
Good luck!
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