EURUSD between rising daily cloud and 200SMA, ahead of ECB

EURUSD

The Euro is in descending from 1.1044 (200SMA), which resisted several attacks and offering significant barrier. The pair remains at the back foot and looks for retest of daily 10SMA that contained yesterday’s dip to 1.0946 and reinforces strong support at 1.0940 (hourly higher base / neckline of hourly Head & Shoulders pattern), break of which is needed to confirm reversal off 1.1056 high.
Meantime, bulls may be disrupted by rising daily Ichimoku cloud, which so far limits downside attempts. Also, long tails of daily candles of past four days, suggest persisting buying interest, which may delay or sideline current downside attempts.
Near-term studies show mixed setup and may trigger further consolidation, while pivotal 1240 support holds.
Initial barrier lies at 1.1000 (psychological resistance), followed by 1.1033 (yesterday’s high), regain of which is needed to signal renewed attempt at key 200SMA barrier.
All eyes are on today’s ECB meeting, which is seen as a key factor for Euro’s near-term direction.

Res: 1.1000; 1.1033; 1.1056; 1.1065
Sup: 1.0959; 1.0940; 1.0912; 1.0901





GBPUSD

Cable holds above 1.4175 support (Fibo 23.6% of 1.3834/1.4281 upleg / daily 20SMA), which contains for the third day, after recovery rally was capped by daily 30SMA at 1.4280 zone. Yesterday’s Doji signaled indecision, which may result in extended consolidation.
Initial range has established between daily 20 & 30SMA’s (1.4175/1.4275), however, negative signals, generated on reversal of daily Slow Stochastic from overbought zone and descending Momentum, keep in play risk of deeper pullback.
Break below 1.4175 (near-term base), will open 1.4110 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4281, reinforced by daily 10SMA) and break here to confirm reversal.
Alternative action requires sustained break above 30SMA to signal fresh extension of recovery rally from 1.3834 (low of 29 Feb).

Res: 1.4240; 1.4275; 1.4303; 1.4385
Sup: 1.4175; 1.4110; 1.4030; 1.4000






USDCAD

The pair fell sharply yesterday and eventually broke and closed below 200SMA support. Fresh acceleration lower left long red daily candle, which formed bearish Outside Day pattern and generated fresh bearish signals.
Oil remains the main driver of the Canadian dollar, with fresh strength, also boosting the Loonie.
Break below 1.3293/1.3303 support zone (200SMA / 50% retracement of larger 1.1917/1.4688 rally), opens way towards 1.3036 ( 03 Nov 2015 trough) and psychological 1.3000 support, as initial targets, followed by 1.2976 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1917/1.4688).
Broken 200SMA now acts as immediate resistance at 1.3293, followed by falling 10SMA at 1.3379.
Upside pivots lay at 1.3440 (yesterday’s high) and 1.3467 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3857/1.3226 downleg) , while only break above falling 20SMA at 1.3560, would sideline near-term bears.

Res: 1.3293; 1.3379; 1.3440; 1.3467
Sup : 1.3226; 1.3200; 1.3150; 1.3100




AUDUSD

Aussie trades within narrow consolidation, just under 0.75 handle, which was broken on yesterday’s rally to 0.7526, where the wave C from 0.6972 stalled, just ahead of 0.7551 target, its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion. Long upper shadow of yesterday’s daily candle, could be seen as initial signal of hesitation and possible easing, as the notion is supported by daily RSI and Slow Stochastic, which are reversing from overbought territory.
Hourly higher base at 0.7408 remains as initial support and break here is needed to signal pullback, confirmation of which requires extension below Fibo 38.2% of 0.7107/0.7526 upleg at 0.7366.
Meantime, extended consolidation will be favored near-term scenario, while the price holds above 0.7408 higher base.


Res: 0.7496; 0.7526; 0.7551; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7454; 0.7408; 0.7366; 0.7316