Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro is at the back foot in the near-term, following yesterday’s upside rejection just under short-term congestion tops and subsequent pullback, which extended below 1.09 handle. Fresh easing put on hold expectations of final attempt through key 1.0983/1.1006 resistance zone, congestion top / daily Ichimoku cloud top.
Key supports lay at 1.0885, hourly Ichimoku cloud top and 1.0866/61, hourly cloud base / daily 20SMA and daily cloud base, which also lies just above 1.0855, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0787/1.0966 upleg.
Break below this strong support zone, would trigger fresh acceleration lower and neutralize near-term bulls.
Otherwise, fresh attempts higher could be expected while clouds hold.
Mixed setup of daily MA’s and indicators in neutrality territory, suggest prolonged range-trading in the near-term.
Res: 1.0946; 1.0966; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0885; 1.0861; 1.0817; 1.0787
GBPUSD
Cable pulls back off fresh highs, just above 1.44 handle, after repeated failure to break above near-term congestion. Falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4389, continues to cap, despite being cracked on extension to 1.4411, session high.
Daily studies show generally bearish setup of MA’s, while indicators are turning south. However, bullish signal is generating on a weekly chart, showing the pair on track for strong bullish weekly close, after previous week’s long-legged Doji and may spark stronger correction.
Sustained break above 1.44 barrier, which also marks Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg, is needed to confirm scenario.
Meantime, expect corrective dips, which should be ideally contained by hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.4290 and 1.4268.
Only return below 1.4228 higher base would neutralize near-term bulls.
Res: 1.4365; 1.4411; 1.4510; 1.4543
Sup: 1.4290; 1.4268; 1.4228; 1.4200
USDCAD
The pair trades around 1.40 handle, showing hesitation above yesterday’s fresh low at 1.3945, with near-term price action being driven by volatile oil prices.
Overall near-term structure remains bearish, while daily bulls are fading and favoring final break below pivotal 1.3978 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2829/1.4688 rally, to confirm bearish resumption.
Upside attempts were so far capped at 1.4050 zone, guarding more significant base of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.4092 and 1.4174.
Only reversal above hourly cloud would neutralize downside threats, which are eyeing key short-term support at 1.3800, 28 Dec / 04 Jan higher base.
Res: 1.4050; 1.4092; 1.4154; 1.4174
Sup: 1.4000; 1.3978; 1.3945; 1.3900
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and extended recovery to 0.7140, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg, reinforced by daily 100SMA, following yesterday’s close above pivotal 30SMA at 0.7077.
As daily MA’s are turning into full bullish mode and indicators are heading north, scope is seen for fresh upside extension towards thin daily cloud at 0.72 zone, which would open way towards key 0.7325 lower top, to mark full retracement of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Meantime, corrective dips should be ideally contained at 0.7055, double-Fibonacci support, 61.8% of 0.7000/0.7139 upleg and 38.2% of 0.6917/0.7139 upleg.
Return below psychological 0.7000 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.6917/0.7139 upleg, would sideline upside attempts and signal deeper correction of entire 0.6826/0.7139 recovery rally.
Res: 0.7140; 0.7168; 0.7200; 0.7280
Sup: 0.7055; 0.7000; 0.6946; 0.6917
The Euro is at the back foot in the near-term, following yesterday’s upside rejection just under short-term congestion tops and subsequent pullback, which extended below 1.09 handle. Fresh easing put on hold expectations of final attempt through key 1.0983/1.1006 resistance zone, congestion top / daily Ichimoku cloud top.
Key supports lay at 1.0885, hourly Ichimoku cloud top and 1.0866/61, hourly cloud base / daily 20SMA and daily cloud base, which also lies just above 1.0855, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0787/1.0966 upleg.
Break below this strong support zone, would trigger fresh acceleration lower and neutralize near-term bulls.
Otherwise, fresh attempts higher could be expected while clouds hold.
Mixed setup of daily MA’s and indicators in neutrality territory, suggest prolonged range-trading in the near-term.
Res: 1.0946; 1.0966; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0885; 1.0861; 1.0817; 1.0787
GBPUSD
Cable pulls back off fresh highs, just above 1.44 handle, after repeated failure to break above near-term congestion. Falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4389, continues to cap, despite being cracked on extension to 1.4411, session high.
Daily studies show generally bearish setup of MA’s, while indicators are turning south. However, bullish signal is generating on a weekly chart, showing the pair on track for strong bullish weekly close, after previous week’s long-legged Doji and may spark stronger correction.
Sustained break above 1.44 barrier, which also marks Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg, is needed to confirm scenario.
Meantime, expect corrective dips, which should be ideally contained by hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.4290 and 1.4268.
Only return below 1.4228 higher base would neutralize near-term bulls.
Res: 1.4365; 1.4411; 1.4510; 1.4543
Sup: 1.4290; 1.4268; 1.4228; 1.4200
USDCAD
The pair trades around 1.40 handle, showing hesitation above yesterday’s fresh low at 1.3945, with near-term price action being driven by volatile oil prices.
Overall near-term structure remains bearish, while daily bulls are fading and favoring final break below pivotal 1.3978 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2829/1.4688 rally, to confirm bearish resumption.
Upside attempts were so far capped at 1.4050 zone, guarding more significant base of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.4092 and 1.4174.
Only reversal above hourly cloud would neutralize downside threats, which are eyeing key short-term support at 1.3800, 28 Dec / 04 Jan higher base.
Res: 1.4050; 1.4092; 1.4154; 1.4174
Sup: 1.4000; 1.3978; 1.3945; 1.3900
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and extended recovery to 0.7140, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg, reinforced by daily 100SMA, following yesterday’s close above pivotal 30SMA at 0.7077.
As daily MA’s are turning into full bullish mode and indicators are heading north, scope is seen for fresh upside extension towards thin daily cloud at 0.72 zone, which would open way towards key 0.7325 lower top, to mark full retracement of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Meantime, corrective dips should be ideally contained at 0.7055, double-Fibonacci support, 61.8% of 0.7000/0.7139 upleg and 38.2% of 0.6917/0.7139 upleg.
Return below psychological 0.7000 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.6917/0.7139 upleg, would sideline upside attempts and signal deeper correction of entire 0.6826/0.7139 recovery rally.
Res: 0.7140; 0.7168; 0.7200; 0.7280
Sup: 0.7055; 0.7000; 0.6946; 0.6917
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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