EURUSD
The Euro remains within narrow range on Friday, anchored at 1.12 handle, awaiting the final decision from EU-Greek negotiations that will resume on Saturday. Very low volumes are seen in near-term trading, as most of traders are out of positions, ahead of Monday’s open, when the main market reaction is expected, in both cases, solution for the problem or failure of talks.
Technically speaking, the Euro is neutral in the near-term, while larger picture shows negatively aligned studies, on daily and weekly chart. The notion is supported by weekly candle in red that signals bearish weekly close after three consecutive weeks of gains that so far stalled under pivotal 1.1465 barrier, high of 15 May.
Ascending daily SMA that currently lies at 1.1238, capped past two days and today’s trading and marks the first pivot, ahead of descending daily 10SMA at 1.1267, flat daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.1284 and psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 1.1300, break above which to improve outlook and re-focus near-term tops at 1.1408/34. Conversely, violation of strong supports that contained past few days’ trading, daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1153 and mid-point of 1.0818/1.1434 rally, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, at 1.1126, would trigger fresh weakness.
Res: 1.1238; 1.1267; 1.1284; 1.1304
Sup: 1.1177; 1.1153; 1.1126; 1.1053
GBPUSD
Sterling trades within narrow consolidative range, following recovery rejection at 1.5769, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of pullback from 1.5928 high that found footstep at 1.5664 on 24 June. The pair holds above psychological 1.57 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5664/1.5769 recovery rally that keeps the downside protected for now. Neutral near-term studies, suggest extended consolidation, before the price establishes in fresh direction. Daily technicals, on the other side, hold positive tone and favor upside scenario. Lift above initial barrier at 1.5769, is required to open more significant 1.5800 resistance, lower top and 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top, above which to provide relief and signal higher low for further retracement of 1.5928/1.5664 pullback. Loss of initial pivot at 1.5700 would soften near-term tone for return to 1.5664 and resumption of reversal from 1.5928, 18 June peak.
Res: 1.5769; 1.5800; 1.5835; 1.5877
Sup: 1.5715; 1.5700; 1.5664; 1.5637
USDJPY
Near-term price action moves within 122.44/124.42 range, in consolidating mode. Near-term base has formed at 122.44, however, current action lacks confirmation that requires break above 124.42 top. Trading in past two days remains contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 123.20 that offers solid support and guards 122.44, range floor. Near-term technicals are neutral and suggest further sideways trading, while entrenched within range boundaries, as setup of daily studies is mixed. Hourly action off today’s low at 123.20, following repeated false attempt below daily 10SMA at 123.43, gives positive near-term signals. Regain of psychological 124 barrier, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 124.36/123.20 pullback, is required to confirm recovery action and re-focus recent tops and range ceiling at 124.36/42.
Res: 124.00; 124.36; 124.42; 125.04
Sup: 123.60; 123.20; 122.97; 122.55
AUDUSD
Aussie came under pressure today and accelerated through near-term consolidation floor at 0.7680. Fresh weakness tested 0.7634, low of 10 June, so far, with immediate focus at bull-trendline, drawn off 0.7531, year-to-date low, at 0.7620, ahead of key short-term support and congestion floor at 0.76 zone. Overall bearish picture is boosted by fresh bears on lower timeframes, threatening 0.7600 breakpoint. Weekly close below here would give initial signal of completion of short-term consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend from 0.8161, peak of 14 May, for retest of 0.7531, 2015 low, posted on 02 Apr. Descending daily 10SMA that capped today’s action, marks pivotal barrier at 0.7735.
Res: 0.7680; 0.7735; 0.7750; 0.7770
Sup: 0.7620; 0.7596; 0.7551; 0.7531
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