GBPUSD first resistance at 1.4335/40

Daily Forecast - 19 February 2016

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD first resistance at 1.4335/40 again today, but above here re-targets a selling opportunity at 1.4395/99. Try shorts with stops above 1.4430. A break higher is a short term buy signal & targets 1.4450 then short term trend line resistance at 1.4490.

The pair are clearly in a bear trend & holding below first resistance at 1.4335/40 targets 1.4300, perhaps as far as 1.4265/60. If we continue lower look for this week's low at 1.4233. Be ready to sell a break below to target 1.4205. If we continue lower look for 1.4173/70 then 1.4149/45.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY holding below 113.55/50 is negative for today & targets 112.94/90 then strong support at 112.50/45. This is the best chance of a low for the day but further losses could target 112.09/05 then 111.80/70.

First resistance at 113.45/50 but the main challenge for bulls today is at 113.90/95. Shorts need stops above 114.25 as we could then re-target strong resistance at 114.90/115.00 for a selling opportunity. Shorts here need stops above 115.20 but a break higher targets 115.45/50 then trend line resistance at 115.85/90.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD holding below 7145/40 is more negative & targets support at 7110/05. This is probably the best of the day but longs need stops below 7080. A break lower however targets 7060 then minor support at 7035. If we continue lower look for short term trend line support at 7015 then 2 week lows at 6980/70.

Above 7140/45 is more positive & re-targets trend line resistance at 7200/7210. Try shorts with stops above February highs at 7240/43. A break above here is a buy signal & targets 7275/80.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP first resistance at 7755/60 is key to direction today. Above 7770 is more positive & targets 7810/15. A break above here could target 7850/53. If we continue higher look for a retest of February highs at 7893/97.

Failure to beat 7755/60 re-targets 7710/05. If we continue lower look for good support at 7680/75. Stop below 7660. A break lower however is a sell signal to target 7618/15.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD first resistance at 1.1120/25 is key to direction today. Holding below here risks a slide to an excellent buying opportunity at 1.1060/55. Stops below 1.1030. A break lower sees 1.1055/60 act as resistance to target 1.0990/85.

First resistance at 1.1120/25 but shorts need stops above 1.1150. A break above here is more positive for today & targets 1.1180/85. If we continue higher look for resistance at 1.1210/20 & a good chance of a high for the day is we reach this far.

Gold Spot

Gold holding below 1234/33 targets 1225 then support at 1217/16. This could hold the downside but longs need stops below 1212. A break lower risks a slide to good support at 1202/00 which could hold the downside. Just be aware that important support at 1190/89 is the last line of defense for bulls. Longs need stops below 1185. A break below here is a sell signal & targets 1180/79 then 11775/74 & 1167/65.

First resistance at 1233/34 but shorts need stops above 1239. A break higher targets 1245/46 then 1248 & strong resistance at 1255/60. Try shorts with stops above 1266.

Eurostoxx March contract

EuroStoxx outlook is more negative with first support at 2874/71. This is only minor & below 2865 adds pressure to target better support at 2840/35. However further losses target support at 2820/15. A break below 2800 is a sell signal & targets 2770/65.

First resistance at 2910/13 but from here up to 2925/30 is key of course. This remains the main challenge for bulls, but shorts need stops above 2945. A break higher is a buy signal & targets 2972/77 then 2986/88.

Ftse March contract

FTSE holding below 5960/50 is more negative & targets 5900 then support at 5884/80. If we continue lower look for good support at 5840/30 which should hold the downside at this stage. However longs need stops below 5810. A break lower targets 5800 then 5770/65 & perhaps as far as good support at 5735/30.

Only above 5960 is less negative for today & allows a recovery to 5975. Obviously 6020/30 should be a big challenge again. However if we continue the recovery look for VERY STRONG resistance at 6070/80 & this should be a truly excellent selling opportunity. In fact we also have the 100 day moving average at 6100/05 so only a break (& really a WEEKLY close too) above here then keeps bulls in short term control.

Dax March contract

Dax first support at 9430/40 is key. If we can hold on here today we can look for a retest of very strong resistance at in the 9540/70 band. Shorts need stops above 9600. Bulls need a weekly close above here tonight to feel more confident for next week. A break higher today targets 9620, 9670 then 9700/05.

Failure to hold above 9430/40 keeps the pressure on for 9350/40. If we continue lower look for 9310/05 then 9275 & good support at 9230/20. This is the best chance of a low for the day but longs need stops below 9190. A break lower targets minor support at 9130/20.