Emini S&P outlook is more negative today

Daily Forecast - 11 February 2016

S&P March contract

Emini S&P outlook is more negative today & holding below 1838 targets 1833/31. Further losses meet this week's lows at 1825/22. Below here targets 1814/13 before January lows at 1805/04. A break below here this week risks a slide to very VERY important longer term support at 1788/86. If this breaks it should trigger more panic selling & very steep losses.

Above 1838 allows a recovery to 1849/50. Gains look likely to be more limited today but above here re-targets 1863 then strong resistance at 1866/68 & the main challenge for bulls today. Above here however opens the door to 1878/1880 then quite strong resistance at 1886/88.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD has recovered & looks likely to test this week's high at 1.1332/37. Although severely overbought markets in general look like they will continue recent trends today which means a breakout higher today for the pair is possible & targets 1.1380/85. If we continue higher look for a test of trend line resistance at 1.1415/20.

Below 1.1270 risks a slide to support at 1.1245/40. A break below 1.1210 could target better support at 1.1190/85. Longs need stops below 1.1160. Further losses could target 1.1140/35.

GBPUSD spot

GBPUSD outlook positive as we hold above 1.4515/20 to re-target yesterday's high at 1.4577. A break higher today looks more likely & targets 1.4585/88 then 1.4610/14. If we continue higher look for 1.4646/49 before last week's high at 1.4665/68.

First support at 1.4515/20 could hold the downside now but below here risks a slide 1.4450 for a buying opportunity. Longs need stops below 1.4410. A break lower however targets 1.4375 then support at 1.4355/50.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD resistance at 7140/45 is key to direction today. However selling here may be too risky as a break higher is looking more likely. It could be a day to trade breakouts higher & in this case we then target trend line resistance at 7180/85. We could stall here initially but I wonder if we can eventually continue higher towards 7215/20.

Failure to beat first resistance at 7140/45 targets 7105 then support at 7088/83. A break below 7075 risks a retest of support at 7035. If we continue lower look for 7018/15 before support at 6985/80.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY hit all downside targets as far as 113.15/10 but we are lower again over night & this is likely to continue lower today. Targets are 112.50/45 then 112.10/05 & 111.50/45. From here down to 111.20 is important support.

Any recovery is a selling opportunity. First resistance at 113.50/60 may be as far as we get. If we could see 114.20/30 this should be a good selling opportunity but if we continue higher try shorts again at 115.10/20 with stops above 115.55.

Gold Spot

Gold has broken important longer term resistance at 1199/1200 over night as I write. This is an important buy signal targets of 1208/09 & 1212/13 have already been hit. We should now continue higher to target 1215, 1219 & 1224. We then target 1227 & 1234.

Any dip back towards 1201/00 is a buying opportunity as we are expected to hold above here now. However a break below 1195 could signal this is a false break & risks a slide to 1188/87, perhaps as far as 1181/80.