The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude Oil

The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude OilWeek ending 26-03-16.

In this article I will analyse five markets from a short and medium term perspective to give you an idea of the current posture of those markets and where the they are likely to move in the coming weeks given the current elliot wave count.

Today I will cover,
•GBP/USD.
•EUR/USD.
•CRUDE.
•GOLD.
•and the DOW JONES.

GBP/USD.

The medium term Elliott wave count views cable in a large C wave downward trend.
The action over the last few months is the start of the 3rd wave down of 5 overall waves.
Cable should keep moving lower and may pick up speed in the coming weeks ahead as wave 3 takes hold.

In the last few weeks we have seen cable move higher in a powerful 650 point rally only to give back the lions share of those gains this week.
The rally in March can still be view as a correction higher, within the ongoing down ward trend.

A critical high has been established at the 14669 handle in the short term. should this high be broken,
I will have to reconsider the count.
For next week I will be looking for the high of 14514 to hold and a break of the 13835 low
to confirm that the count is still valid an that the longer term down trend is solidly in place.

If cable is in fact in a wave 3 down we should start to see some large downward moves easily taking out prior lows.
Shorting opportunities will appear in the form of corrective rallies, by using the highs mentioned above as extreme stops.

EUR/USD

Last week I spoke about the recent high which touched the upper trend line of the contracting triangle.
I view that trend line high as the high of wave E in the triangle.
Wave E is the final wave in a contracting triangle and should be followed by a thrust in the opposite direction to re-establish the larger trend in the wave count.

That larger trend is Down with a possible long term target at the 8500 handle.

I was looking for that trend line high to hold and for the price to move to the downside over the week.
We got that much, so the story holds!
As the larger wave count takes hold next week and after,
I will be looking for larger downward thrusts with short consolodations.

Right now the Critical high is the High at the top of wave E shown in the chart.
My short position is still open with a stop at the high.

CRUDE

Medium term:

Crude oil is moving higher in a corrective pattern, wave 'a' is possibly complete and wave b is beginning.

I would expect to see sideways to downwards action over the next few weeks in a wave 'b'. This week saw the RSI top out in the upper range, suggesting the rally is nearing a high.

Short term:

The most recent high formed a decent 'hammer candle', this is a bearish candlestick pattern which foresaw this weeks 400 point decline.

Continued weakness should be expected over the coming week.

B waves usuall retarace about 50% of the previous A wave, in this case we should expect a three wave decline to approximately $35. I will then be looking to go long for the wave C rally.

GOLD

Medium term:

As with crude oil, gold is in a medium term counter trend rally higher. This rally should take a 3 wave form labelled A,B,C. Wave A seems complete, with the last few weeks action being a sideways to downward wave B, and wave C up to follow in the near future.

Short term:

The shorter term wave count views the price correcting in wave B. and right now we seem to be nearing the end of this structure.

the final leg down should break down into five waves, It looks as if wave 1 and 2 are complete with wave 3 underway this week.

Next week should bring further weakness for the gold price to complete wave 3. the wave labelling in the chart above shows a possible form that the price might take within the 5 wave structure.

The target at the moment for Wave B is in the region of 1160.

DOW JONES

Medium term.

Last week I spoke about the DOW peaking in wave 'd' of a triangle pattern and I was looking for the price to drop into wave 'e'. This week we saw the price drop about 250 points it is still uncertain that the top is in for wave 'd' as I will show in the short term chart.

You can see from the chart that the daily RSI has registered an extreme this week, this could coincide with the short term top that is occurring.

Short term:

the form of the recent decline is quite overlapping to be regarded as an impulsive move down, so I am open to the possibility that a slight new daily high could be made next week.

If this occurs it will be the final high in wave 'd' of the triangle and we could look lower in wave 'e'. The last two candles in the above chart look impulsive and lead me to believe next week could bring a short rally to complete the picture.

If the price turns around and breaks the recent low we can call that a confirmation that the high of wave 'd' is in and wave 'e' will have begun. Wave 'e' should be short and sharp.

The target range for wave 'e' is between the lower trend line at about 15600 and the 61.8% retracement of wave 'd' at 16295.

That's it for this weeks Elliott wave picture, Good luck with your trading in the coming week.

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The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude Oil