Weekly Forex Risk Calendar. Week 12, 2016

We highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine. Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions.

It was a busy week with another surprise statement from Central Bank. This time Janet Yellen delivered rather dull and dovish outlook for the markets and the future of monetary policy. This was kind of shock.The market was expecting upbeat stance from FED.

Many traders were caught on the wrong side of the market once again. As seen in Commitments Of Traders report.
The week just started is very quiet and rather boring with only few risk events in the calendar. Normally weeeks like that are more likely to respect technical levels and the price action.

Tuesday, March 22nd @ 5:30am – AUD – RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Tuesday, March 22nd @ 9:30am – GBP – CPI y/y and Core CPI y/y
Tuesday, March 22nd @ 10:0am – EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wednesday, March 23rd @ 9:45am – NZD – Trade Balance

Thursday, March 24th @ 9:30am – GBP – Retail Sales m/m
Thursday, March 24th @ 12:30pm – USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Thursday, March 24th @ 12:30pm – USD – Unemployment Claims

Friday, March 25th @ 12:30pm – USD – Final GDP q/q

Tuesday

Tuesday, March 22nd @ 5:30am – AUD – RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Gov Stevens is speaking at the Australian Securities & Investment Commission in Sydney. Most likely, this will be non-event. Stevens is not expected to comment on the monetary policy during this event.

Tuesday, March 22nd @ 9:30am – GBP – CPI y/y and Core CPI y/y.
Both reports are always important for the local currency traders. Headline read y/y is expected to print 0.4%, a tick above 0.3% prior, the more important Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 1.2%. Any higher than expected number will be bullish for GBP. More inflation will raise the probability of BOE hiking the rates in the midterm.

Tuesday, March 22nd @ 10:0am – EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
I don’t expect this to be a market mover, but worthwhile to keep an eye for any mad deviations.

Wednesday

Wednesday, March 23rd @ 9:45am – NZD – Trade Balance
This is the only event on Wednesday. Trade balance is expected to print 8M. As Kiwi is trading close to resistance, a miss to the downside could potentially add to bearishness in this market. This could also move other commodity currencies.

Thursday

Thursday, March 24th @ 9:30am – GBP – Retail Sales m/m
Another important event for GBP. This will probably follow the sentiment for Sterling from the previous days and the read on CPI. Any deviations to the downside will add to bearishness. Really need to see CPI read first to judge how the market is going to react on this.
Thursday, March 24th @ 12:30pm – USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Thursday, March 24th @ 12:30pm – USD – Unemployment Claims
Two events coming out at the same time. Durable goods will prove to be a market mover only at the decent deviation. Market expects 1.8%. Look for lower than expected number to add to Dollar sell off after FOMC last week.

Friday

Friday, March 25th @ 12:30pm – USD – Final GDP q/q
Please note this Friday is a major bank holiday in UK, Germany and Canada. The only event worth mentioning is the USD Final GDP q/again, lower than expected number could add to weak US Dollar outlook. I recommend not to get into any positions on bank holiday Friday. It better to wait until Monday when the liquidity comes back to the markets.