UK Market Comments


In mid-morning trading the FTSE 100 is down 30 points as British banks bear the brunt of the Scottish uncertainty.

The FTSE 100 has opened lower, financial stocks have been hit hardest, and even though the polls are showing a 'No' vote it is likely nobody wants to stick their neck out and buy banks and insurers ahead of the Scottish referendum on Thursday. AG Barr, which owns Irn Bru, will report its half-year figures next week. Some Scottish-headquartered businesses have suggested relocating to England if a 'Yes' vote goes ahead, but I suspect AG Barr will be staying put either way. Today is the anniversary of 'Black Wednesday' when the pound collapsed in value. The Scots go to the polls on Thursday, and we could have a 'Black Friday' on our hands depending on which way the vote goes. Our binary bet is now pricing in a 22% chance of Scotland voting 'Yes'. The binary has seen a spike in trading volumes this week with both outcomes being heavily traded.

Galliford Try revealed record profits on an annual basis and the company's business, Linden Homes, announced an increase average selling price of 15%. Galliford Try's CEO Greg Fitzgerald will step down next year after 33 years of service at the company. ASOS has issued two profit warnings in six months and the downbeat update this morning has compounded the share price decline. The stock has dropped 65% in the past six months, as seen on traders' screens.

In the US, we are expecting the Dow to open 40 points lower at 16,991 as the Fed meeting draws nearer. Our grey market is suggesting a market capitalisation of $213 billion for Alibaba's IPO which will begin trading on Friday. It is almost a given that it will be a record IPO.

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Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

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