KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
CE leading indicators tend to stabilise
After deterioration during recent months, CE leading indicators started to stabilise in November and confirmed this with our December CE Flash leading indicators reading. In the Czech Republic and Hungary the negative momentum in the Flash leading indicators has been continually improving since September and the Czech Flash posted minor gain in December. Meanwhile the Polish Flash has already clearly rebounded and grows pretty strongly according to the first December estimate.
The important new piece of information in comparison with the November reading is the development in neighbouring Germany. The German Business sentiment Ifo has weighed on the regional sentiment during autumm. Fortunately in December the Ifo improved for the second month in a row and started to contribute positively to all regional indices.
On the other hand one must keep in mind that the Flash indices have been declining for a while (especially in Poland since early 2014) and the bottoming process can last for a while. Nevertheless if the bottoming is confirmed, one should expect relatively solid growth across the region after somewhat weaker end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015. The Russian recession shouldn’t have a major impact on the regional outlook in 2015 as cheaper oil will offset it. Jan Bures, CSOB Prague.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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