Weekly Forex Chart Analysis, April 21st – 25th 2014

Weekly Forex Chart Analysis, April 21st – 25th 2014

EURUSD – Euro/dollar consolidating just above support

The EURUSD didn’t move much on Friday due to the Easter holiday, but on Thursday it ended basically unchanged again after paring almost all its gains into the NY close and forming a pin bar, for the second day in a row. The problem with these pin bars that formed Thursday and Wednesday last week, is that they are in consolidation and not sticking out / protruding from the surrounding PA or at a resistance level, so they are really not very good sell signals. Still, they are showing rejection of higher prices and could potentially lead to a move lower. But given support is just below near 1.3800 and then 1.3700, and recent momentum has been more bullish than bearish, any move lower would be seen as a potential buying opportunity at this point. Overall, this market is clearly choppy right now so it’s best to sit on our hands for now until the market gives us clearer PA clues as to what it may do next.

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar bullish trend intact

The GBPUSD moved higher early in Thursday’s session as the bullish momentum from the pin bar we discussed in our April 15th commentary continued, breaking up above that key 1.6820 resistance and hitting a high of 1.6841 before reversing gains into the NY close and forming a small bearish pin bar. This pin bar is counter-trend, and after the recent strong surge higher we don’t like trading against the trend at this point and instead see any counter-trend movement as a potential buying opportunity. Traders can watch for price action buy signals from the 8 / 21 day EMA dynamic support layer or support down near 1.6700 – 1.6655 for buying opportunities if the market retraces lower this week.

NZDUSD – Kiwi/dollar approaching key support

The NZDUSD lost ground last Thursday, for the third day in a row. We can see the market is working its way down toward key support near 0.8510. This week, we can watch for price action buy signals down near this support to trade back in-line with the bullish trend from value / support.

USDJPY - Dollar/yen remains strong above 101.20 key support

The USDJPY pushed higher last week, up from key support near 101.20. Whilst the market is above this level we prefer to look for buy signals this week to trade back toward the key resistance of the trading range near 103.75 - 104.12 area.