The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A bearish key day reversal candle. With a lower high in place the triangle congestion scenario still remains the most preferred outcome. Ideally the pair should have stalled at 1.0930 (78.6% of the preceding move) but as can be seen the market has had great difficulties holding above that level. With yesterday’s bearish key day reversal the next leg within the triangle is most likely underway and if our assumption is right we should see the 1.06-area being scrutinized next week.
GBP/USD: Triangular consolidation running late. There is a possibility that the bear triangle was completed yesterday with the move up to and down from the 1.50-area. If that’s the fact we should soon see the pair falling again breaking below 1.4807 and next taking aim at 1.4689. If the triangle isn’t completed there will be some further meandering in particular the 1.48-49 area before following the above path.
USD/JPY: At the crossroads. The 118.46 – 118.11-area is of great interest given the potential outcome if the decline isn’t just an ordinary three wave setback. If the past weeks decline is just part and parcel of an ordinary three wave decline then it should ideally end at 118.46. However if the pair continues lower and especially so ending the pattern of rising lows (breaking 118.11) the probability will swing in favor of a broader double top (Dec and Mar) to have been put in place (and hence a forthcoming break below 115.56 (double top confirmation point).
AUD/USD: Testing dynamic support at 0.7750. The short- medium- & long-term setups sends mixed signals with a high monthly close bucking the prevailing uptrend – but we are not there yet and a lot can happen into month & quarter end, so let’s focus on the nitty-gritty stuff in the dailies until we know more. The decline from a recent 0.7939 high (and the upper end of the still descending 55day moving average band) is still on and it is targeting dynamic supports at/just above 0.7750, and a bearish looking session close below, would lower sights further.
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