The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Rebounding. The hourly bear triangle played out well and the market fell down to the 1.1063/67 support before rebounding. The question now is whether the rebound will carry prices up to 1.1153/60/67 or if there’s a mid body test (of the latest falling benchmark candle) at 1.1234 coming? At the moment the best fitted hourly wave pattern calls for the first alternative so look for offers just above the mid 1.11’s.
USD/JPY: Time for a breather. After the recent impulsive rally we yesterday ran into the upper boundary of the 55d Bollinger bands and like in March there appears to be sellers outside the band so there’s clearly potential for at least a short term setback down to the 120.83 – 120.73 minor support.
GBP/USD: Testing a wider dynamic support. The move down from a short-term upside stretch is still ongoing, but the high end of the positively inclined 21day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.5485/1.5345) is seemingly providing some support (and is shielding the more important 55day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.5315/1.5170) and a key ref at 1.5088 from action. But to waver on a short-term bearish stance, local resistance at 1.5668\5702 must be reclaimed.
USD/CAD: Rechecking the breakout area. After twice failing above a 161.8% Fibo projection point (actually point where the current wave three should take a pause, consolidating before continuing higher) the market entered a minor correction/congestion rechecking (and validating) the recent break higher. We expect bargain hunters to be active in the 1.2205 – 1.2164 area.
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