Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, Oil

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group

EUR/USD: Bearishly into a fresh yearly low. The yearly low was crushed yesterday and pronouncedly so, with only the intraday stretch preventing a deeper fall into the next short-term objective at a short-term 161.8% Fibo projection ref at 1.3449. This move tilts the 3mt outlook into negative - something volatility traders take a note of too. Pushing the 1mt risk-reversal increasingly favoring puts over calls and the implied volatility higher. 1.3491/03 is a first-hand resistance while the current intraday stretches are located at 1.3425 & 1.3525.

EUR/JPY: Targets next 136.25 & 136.65/52 later. The short-term bearish wave structure is incomplete and trend-following tools are in negative positions but far from stretched. The 3mt outlook would turn negative on a bearish looking session/weekly close below 136.25. Key short-term resistance remains at 134.34/50. Current intraday stretches are located at 136.20 & 137.20.

EUR/GBP: Can the market accelerate the decline? The near-term scenario, favoring lower levels, worked well but now comes the tricky part: Trend-following tools are in negative positions, which is fine, but the move cannot look this wedgy to sustain pace to seriously target the 2012 low (0.7765) with ease. Unless taking advantage of the current general weakness it will be bumpy road ahead. Current intraday stretches are located at 0.7865 & 0.7920.

Crude Oil: Support at 106.80 could be violated. A correction higher could be completed, but maybe it isn't. So with two equally likely near-term wave structures we advise keeping eyes on support at 106.80. Above would host a +108.60 high before down (which would be needed to reduce the short-term stretch) while below this watershed would again expose the recent 105.50 low (with some support at 106.05/90.

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