The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EURUSD’s sharp fall below 1.3020/15 reinforces our bearish stance, and we maintain our 1.2787/55 target.
EURUSD fell sharply last week, easily brushing aside our next target at 1.3020/15 - the 50% retracement of the 2012/2014 uptrend, 78.6% retracement of the 2013/2014 uptrend, and measured target from the "head & shoulders" top. Near-term, trend and Fibonacci projection support at 1.2920/08 should be allowed to hold at first for a retracement higher, but with further weakness expected to our core target zone of 1.2787/55 - the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2012/14 bull trend and July 2013 low. While we look for a better floor here, bigger picture, we suspect weakness will now eventually extend towards 1.2200..
Near-term resistance shows at 1.2958, above which can see a move back to 1.3012, and potentially 1.3069. We look for 1.3110 to ideally cap further gains.
CS booked profit on its last EUR/USD short at 1.3025 and now runs a limit order to re-sell at 1.3010.
USD/JPY: The break above 105.48/60 reinforces our bullish stance and we look for a move higher towards 107.34 next.
USDJPY has found renewed strength and prodded above the key barrier at 105.48/60 - the high from January and 61.8% retracement of the entire 2007/2011 decline. We continue to look for a re-test and a sustained break above the latter which should then mark a more significant bull phase for further strength towards 106.52 initially, followed by 107.38. Above here can then aim at 109.40, and then what we deem as tougher resistance at 110.60/111.60.
Near-term support moves to 104.80/73. Below here can see a small top, for a move back to 104.47.
CS runs a long USD/JPY from 104.80 targeting 107.40.
USD/CHF: The surge above .9251/72 should see strength extend to .9505 next.
USD/CHF has utilised basing support now at .9168 as a springboard to surge up through medium-term resistance at .9251/72 – the high from November 2013 and 50% retracement of the May 2013/March 2014 decline. This should open the door to further significant gains for a move to .9372 next, ahead of the 61.8% retracement level at .9505 next. We would expect an initial retracement back from here, ahead of a move to the September price high at .9457.
Near-term support moves to .9240, then .9214, with .9174/68 expected to hold to keep the risk directly higher.
CS booked profit on its last USD/CHF long at 0.9250 and now runs a limit order to re-buy at 0.9240.
AUD/USD: We stay marginally bullish above .9330.
Price and 13-day average support at .9330 needs to hold to suggest the immediate risk is still topside. Resistance shows at .9349 initially, followed by Thursday’s spike high at .9393. A sustained break of the latter should then see a challenge of the downtrend resistance at .9438.
A break below .9330 should confirm a false break higher for a move back to .9263, ahead of key price and “neckline” support at .9244/30. Capitulation of the latter should then see weakness extend towards .9211/02 initially.
CS holds a long AUD/USD position targeting 0.9500.
'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews'.
eFXnews is a financial news and information service. Articles and other information distributed in this service and published on this site are provided in general terms and do not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that some of these articles include suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, they do so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions to buy or sell a specific security or currency.
The service and the content of this site are provided and distributed on the basis of “AS IS” without warranties of any kind either, express or implied, including without limitations, warranties of title or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors do not also warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in any of the articles and other information distributed in this service and included on this site, and eFXnews hereby disclaims any such express or implied warranties; and, you hereby acknowledge that use of the service and the content of this site is at you sole risk.
In no event shall eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors will be liable to you or any third party or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you in your reliance on any strategy and/or advice included in any article and other information distributed in this service and published in this site.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.