Volatility was the theme of the day, due to the early data of US GDP with only 0.2% growth against 1.0% expected. But who estimate that frame of reference to compare? Why the market reacts if a number is worse or better than expected? It really makes no sense, and as long as we focus on those parameters which are sometimes very illogical, we will continue with that kind of volatility in economic data, or surely just estimate that simply because algorithms have a framework to react immediately to win something in back river.
Stock indices worldwide fell obviously, if you say it should be 1% and 0.2% out all fires down. The funny thing is that the European indices were the most suffered losses after the event, but if we think Europe exists thanks to the US economy right now. Look only unemployment rates in the countries of the European Union and compare them with the Stock Market, It makes no sense, while USA has some jobless recovery and the market are keeping up. So a contraction of the United States, could end up sinking the European economy.
Then came the minutes of the FOMC that brought more volatility to the market, but did not have any clarity as expected and by the time we have the technical analysis.
Although the Dow ended with losses, significant levels are maintained and we continue within the wave "A" of the last ABC we expect to complete the ending diagonal in the daily chart. By the end of the month, the index should continue upward to look for 18180 - 18234 area which is 100% and 123.6% Fibonacci extensions. There should complete the wave "A" then see another correction but should not lose the 18000 level and then make the final push upward to a minimum of 18357 and then wait if we have a strong downward reaction.
To invalidate this idea the market must do two things: or break down the level of 17550 and the beginning of the wave 4 is confirmed or break up the 18500 level such that has no return.
_20150430070746.png "US30 - Primary - Apr-29 1525 PM (2 hour)")
_20150430070815.png "US30 - Diario - Apr-24 1414 PM (1 day)")
Stock indices worldwide fell obviously, if you say it should be 1% and 0.2% out all fires down. The funny thing is that the European indices were the most suffered losses after the event, but if we think Europe exists thanks to the US economy right now. Look only unemployment rates in the countries of the European Union and compare them with the Stock Market, It makes no sense, while USA has some jobless recovery and the market are keeping up. So a contraction of the United States, could end up sinking the European economy.
Then came the minutes of the FOMC that brought more volatility to the market, but did not have any clarity as expected and by the time we have the technical analysis.
Although the Dow ended with losses, significant levels are maintained and we continue within the wave "A" of the last ABC we expect to complete the ending diagonal in the daily chart. By the end of the month, the index should continue upward to look for 18180 - 18234 area which is 100% and 123.6% Fibonacci extensions. There should complete the wave "A" then see another correction but should not lose the 18000 level and then make the final push upward to a minimum of 18357 and then wait if we have a strong downward reaction.
To invalidate this idea the market must do two things: or break down the level of 17550 and the beginning of the wave 4 is confirmed or break up the 18500 level such that has no return.
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