Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar continued to trade within a tight range to begin the week as no local or any high impact offshore data was released to provide direction. During Asian trade the AUD traded just below the US94 cent handle as investors seemed to be patiently waiting on market figures for guidance. Overnight the focus continued to be on the geopolitical events worldwide as the Greenback edged higher. The Australian dollar opens today at 0.9375 marginally lower versus the US dollar. Onlookers will watch as RBA Governor Stevens speaks and will attempt to seek subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. Elsewhere in the market economic numbers from China and the US will be printed for the first time this week and should help investor’s on their outlook for the week to come.
- We expect a range today of 0.9330 – 0.9420
New Zealand Dollar:
In another lacklustre day for the New Zealand dollar the higher yielding currency failed to gain momentum against the USD shrugging off the low impact numbers released domestically. The New Zealand dollar spent the majority of Asian trade drifting upwards underpinned by the market sentiment on global events. Visitor arrivals decreased by 0.3 per cent whilst credit card spending increased however less than previous by 7 per cent. These two minor releases had little effect on the Kiwi and overnight the lack of US data kept the market quiet with investors focused on geopolitical events. The Kiwi lost ground overnight as did most of the riskier currencies as the world stayed focused on global political events opening this morning at 0.8685 slightly weaker versus the Greenback. Tuesday is another day with no local data however Chinese and US figures should help the NZD find direction.
- We expect a range today of 0.8645 – 0.8735
Great British Pound:
Monday saw a fairly subdued market with little economic data to sway interest in either direction. The British Pound as with other major currencies slipped lower against the Greenback to 1.7074 as the safe haven US dollar was seen to gain strength on the back of continuing tensions in the Middle East and the Ukraine. The Sterling managed to gain against the higher yielding currencies in a similar move to Friday opening today stronger at 1.8210 and 1.9650 versus the AUD and NZD respectively, as riskier currencies were sold off overnight. All in all Monday was relatively quiet however Tuesday is expected to see movement return to the market with the UK announcing the public sectors net borrowing and CBI industrial expectations.
- We expect a range today of 1.8175 – 1.8255
Majors:
The start to the week was stagnant in terms of market movement as investors had little information to guide them in regards to trade decisions. The main focus to begin the week was in line with the end of last week and concentrated on geopolitical events which saw the safe haven US dollar gain strength across the board. The world is still waiting on the events of Ukraine and the Middle East to unfold and investors are watching closely as these geopolitical events can influence the market dependant on their outcomes. The Euro’s minor economic data released overnight was shrugged off however the EUR continued to trend downwards on the idea the ECB will continue to take action to revitalise the economy. Today should see some life being brought back into the market even though there is no data out of Europe the US will print Core CPI and Existing home sales numbers to shape direction to begin the week.
Data releases:
- AUD: RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks, RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
- NZD: No Data
- JPY: All Industries Activity m/m
- GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing, 10-y Bond Auction, CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- EUR: No Data
- USD: Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, HPI m/m, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index
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