Traders will take positions for next week. Next week we have just two working days. Thereafter a very long holiday. Domestic events and global events are changing very rapidly. The next quarter will be different from the current quarter. In the next quarter (a) India has a new financial year (b) The progress of monsoon from early May will be closely watched (c) The government ability/inability to curtail retail food price inflation in the next quarter should be one of the biggest challenge (d) On the global front US interest rate expectation, progresses of US economy after the Easter holidays, direction of the US dollar and global energy prices are some of the factors which can affect India. (e) Indian stock markets consolidation phase (if any) will limit rupee gains.
For now rupee is affected by presence of the Reserve bank of India. They are on both sides of the curve.
Usd/inr April 15 (expiry on 28th April 15):
- It needs to trade over 62.9225 today to rise to 63.2125 and 63.4475. There will be sellers only below 62.9225 or in case 63.2125 is not breached.
Euro/inr April 15 (expiry on 28th April 15):
- Euro/inr can rise to 69.8950 and 70.0475 as long as it trades over 68.9925. There will be sellers only below 68.9925 today.
Gbp/Inr April 15 (expiry on 28th April 15):
- Cable immediate resistance is at 93.8250. A break of 93.8250 will result in 94.2775 and 94.7750. (There is a technical congestion between 94.1350 and 94.2750). Initial support is at 93.6700. There will be sellers only below 93.6700.
Jpy/Inr April 15 (expiry on 28th April 15):
- Yen/inr needs to trade over 52.6900 today to rise to 53.2325 and 53.4950. There will be sellers only below 52.6900 today.
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