Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Yesterday saw WTI visit $29.93 in intra-day trading and crude certainly ended down on the day, again. As usual there were mixed messages humming around the oil market, the Nigerian Oil Minister said that there would be an emergency Opec meeting in March which the UAE Minister ruled out. The STEO report was actually quite good for the market as it increased non-Opec supply contraction to 640/- b/d thus increasing the call on Opec to 31.43m b/d in 2016 and 32.64m b/d in 2017. Dependent on the supply situation that is about the level at which Opec could start to turn the taps off and have the world by the short and curlies, and of course when the 300bn of capex cuts by the majors would kick in…is it just me that is taking this seriously?
The API stats, released as ever after the close, were also mixed, bulls read into the crude draw of 3.9m barrels, 300/- at Cushing as good news but gasoline build by 7m and distillates were up 3.7m. Again we will have to see what the EIA have for us tonight.
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