Japan govt cuts GDP forecast

Asian Market Update: Japan govt cuts GDP forecast; China's CBRC warns on bad loans, while PBoC skips daily drain

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA JUN CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.3% (7-month high) V 0.7% PRIOR

- (TW) TAIWAN JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.0% V 4.0%E

- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.5 v 108.7 prior

- (US) NORTH AMERICA JUNE SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.09 V 1.00 PRIOR (8-month high)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +0.9, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,968

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold -0.1% at $1,314, Aug crude oil flat at $104.58/brl, Sept Copper +0.4% at $3.21/lb

- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (1st halt after 6 drains)

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥200B in 3-5yr JGB, and ¥20B in inflation-indexed bonds

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Shares of Netflix sustained their recent rally despite an in-line Q2 report and soft Q3 guidance, as total net adds of 1.69M were well ahead of 1.46 prior forecast. Chipotle shares hit record highs afterhours near $650 after crushing Q2 sales and earnings and guiding SSS higher. TXN is up marginally despite a beat on top and bottom lines as well as a record high gross profit margin, while STLD is up an impressive 7% on strong sales and rising shipments.

- China June economic assessment from Conference Board increased at the highest rate in 7 months. Resident economist said the June pickup "is unlikely to be fully felt until the final quarter of the year, even though slight monetary loosening and better export performance could underpin more economic activity sooner." Also of note in China, the PBoC skipped its regular repo drain for the first time in 7 scheduled operations in spite of the high lending volume reported last month. Traders noted the deferred operations sought to keep a cap on liquidity ahead of the anticipated IPO launches in the coming days. Separately, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC)'s Yan Qingmin called for mainland banks to accelerate bad loans write off, expressing concern over the possibility of rising NPLs.

- Japan govt cut its economic projection for real GDP in FY14/15 to 1.2% from 1.4% as had been speculated in local press. Fin Min Aso put the blame on lagging exports amid soft demand from emerging economies. Meanwhile, a Sankei survey revealed disapproval rating for PM Abe's cabinet climbing 6pts to a record high above 40%. Econ Min Amari also reiterated the govt will not make a decision on another sales tax hike until this December.

- USD majors are once again flat across the board with the exception of AUD/USD. The aussie dollar spiked up about 20pips against the greenback toward the $0.94 handle after RBA Gov Stevens neglected to mention or to attempt to talk down the exchange rate as had been widely speculated by traders going into his address at the Anika Foundation Luncheon. Note that Australia will also release its quarterly CPI data tomorrow.

Equities

US markets:

- SANM: Reports Q3 $0.53 v $0.48e, R$1.60B v $1.55Be; +11.8% afterhours

- CMG: Reports Q2 $3.50 v $3.05e, R$1.05B v $980Me; +10.1% afterhours

- STLD: Reports Q2 $0.31 v $0.31e, R$2.06B v $1.97Be; +7.5% afterhours

- APA: Jana reportedly discloses $1B activist stake in investor letter - financial press; +4.5% afterhours

- NFLX: Reports Q2 $1.15 v $1.14e, R$1.34B v $1.34Be; +0.7% afterhours

- JNJ: Announces $5B share repurchase program (approx 1.7% of market cap); +0.6% afterhours

- TXN: Reports Q2 $0.62 v $0.59e, R$3.29B v $3.26Be, Guides Q3 $0.66-0.76 v $0.68e; -0.1% afterhours

- RCII: Reports Q2 $0.38 (adj) v $0.38e, R$773M v $781Me; Cuts FY14 guidance; -1.0% afterhours

- CROX: Reports Q2 $0.36 v $0.31e, R$376.9M v $372Me; to close or sell 75-100 of its 600 stores; to cut approx 180 (3.6%) of 5.0K workers; Halted

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Panasonic 6752.JP +2.1% (to sell mobile phone base station to Nokia)

- Financials: China Taiping Insurance 0966.HK +1.7% (H1 guidance)

- Materials: Discovery Metals DML.AU +2.3% (Q4 mining results); Zijin Mining 2899.HK +1.1% (H1 results)

- Energy: China Petroleum & Chemical 386.HK +1.8% (H1 results)

- Industrials: Macquarie Atlas Roads MQA.AU +0.9% (Q2 results)

- Technology: Toshiba 6502.JP -0.3% (said to be seeking $1.1B in damages from SK Hynix for illegally obtaining and utilizing flash memory technology)

- Telecom: China Telecom 728.HK +1.5% (Reports June subscriber metrics)