Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
I commented intraday yesterday about yet another spike in Dollar/Yen above 102.80 and questioned whether the bulls could hold on. They could not. For the fourth time in five days this has now been seen and the bulls just cannot get traction on a sustained breakout. The number of long tailed doji (uncertain) candlesticks are growing. It is difficult to know exactly what they mean at this stage, but something seems to be building up now. The series of higher daily lows over the past three days does not suggest that the downside pressure is mounting and on the intraday hourly chart the outlook is one of consolidation more than loss of momentum. The daily momentum indicators are just unwinding some strength. If the dollar can hold above the support at 102.30 (which seems to increasingly be the case) then the pressure will grow for an upside break. A close above 102.80 could be the catalyst for a sustained move towards a test of 104.12 the April high. A failure of the support at 102.30 would suggest a loss of upside impetus now and the continuation of the range.
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