Market Brief

The risk sentiment soured since yesterday on weak US and Chinese data. The Chicago Fed National Activity index turned -0.23 in March from 0.44 last month, while the existing home sales fell -0.6% vs. +0.8% in February. This is clearly in opposition with the new home starts in US, which increased by 7% in March while the existing homes seem to have hard time to be sold.

In China, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell short of the market expectations. Chinese manufacturing expansion slowed down to 50.5 from 51.6 last month. In reaction, Asian stock markets lost overnight. Hang Seng fell 1.2%, Shanghai’s Composite slumped 2.2%; Nikkei (-0.35%), Taiex (-0.40%) and Kospi index (-0.35%) followed the bear market.

JPY was bid overnight on the deteriorating risk appetite. USDJPY traded down to 98.98 in US and extended losses to 98.59 in Tokyo. AUDJPY and EURJPY have been among the most hit pairs on the disappointing Chinese PMI. Nikkei reported that the Japanese insurers pivot towards foreign bonds, yet 100-wall appears to be thicker than thought. S&P sees still more then 1/3 chance of Japan downgrade while the Japan ageing industrial trail is shown as significant roadblock to “Abenomics”.

The high volatility registered on Italian Napolitano’s re-election left its place to a quiet trading in Euro ahead of PMI figures scheduled this morning. As the discussions on a possibility of an ECB rate cut gains pace, ECB Coeure’s comments weighed further on Euro-sentiment. Coeure said he didn’t see any improvement since last ECB meeting (nothing more exciting than the obvious reality) and the jittering around an upcoming rate cut sent EURUSD down to 1.3015. However in the European opening, EURUSD registered a decent rally on better-than-expected French PMI.

The bull attempt in Aussie remained capped at yesterday’s 1.0310. AUDUSD sold-off to 1.0221 on global growth concerns, as Chinese and US data were not gratifying news for commodity currencies. The fall was tempered by local importers above 1.0200, yet stops are reported below this level. In New Zealand, NZD was sold ahead of RBNZ policy announcement tonight. The OCR is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%.

Today the economic calendar consists of Swiss March Trade Balance, Imports & Exports, French March Business Confidence, Italian April Consumer Confidence, French, German and Euro-Zone April (Preliminary) PMI Manufacturing & Services, UK March Public Finances, Canadian February Retail Sales, US February House Price Index, US March New Home Sales and April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Snap Short

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index 13,520.38 -0.3537
Hang Seng Index 21,785.71 -1.1734
Shanghai Index 2,191.95 -2.2387
FTSE futures 6,230.00 0.1366
DAX futures 7,481.00 0.2479
SMI Index 7,587.00 0.0264
S&P future 1,552.70 -0.2057

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Gold 1,424.41 -0.1434
Silver 23.06 -1.6486
Crude wti 88.61 -0.6203
VIX 14.39 -3.8744
USD Index 82.67 -0.0024

Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
SZ Mar Trade Balance CHF 1.80B CHF 2.10B CHF / 07:00
SZ Mar Exports Real SA m/m - -2.6% CHF / 07:00
SZ Mar Imports Real SA m/m - -5.4% CHF / 07:00
FR Mar Business Confidence Indicator 89 90 EUR / 07:45
FR Apr(P) PMI Manufacturing 44.1 44.0 EUR / 08:00
FR Apr(P) PMI Services 42.0 41.3 EUR / 08:00
GE Apr(P) PMI Manufacturing 49.0 49.0 EUR / 08:30
GE Apr(P) PMI Services 51.0 50.9 EUR / 8:30
SW Mar Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.5% SEK / 08:30
IT Apr Consumer Confidence Ind. sa 85.0 85.2 EUR / 09:00
Euro-Zone Apr(P) PMI Manufacturing 46.7 46.8 EUR / 09:00
Euro-Zone Apr(P) PMI Services 46.5 46.4 EUR / 09:00
Euro-Zone Apr(P) PMI Composite 46.5 46.5 EUR / 09:00
UK Mar Public Finances GBP 18.0B GBP -1.5B GBP / 09:30
CA Feb Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.0% CAD / 13:30
CA Feb Retail Sales Less Autos m/m 0.5% 0.5% CAD / 13:30
US Feb House Price Index 0.7% 0.6% USD / 14:00
US Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 2 3 USD / 15:00
US Mar New Home Sales 416K 411K USD / 16:00
US Mar New Home Sales m/mj 1.2% -4.6% USD / 15:00


Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.3200
R 1: 1.3140
CURRENT: 1.3075
S 1: 1.3000
S 2: 1.2970

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5410
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5262
S 1: 1.5180
S 2: 1.5034

USDJPY
R 2: 102.33
R 1: 99.95
CURRENT: 98.78
S 1: 97.17
S 2: 95.75

USDCHF
R 2: 0.9445
R 1: 0.9366
CURRENT: 0.9335
S 1: 0.9262
S 2: 0.9207

  • S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot