EUR/USD and NFP

NFP forecast is 200,000. What does this number mean, nothing and why. Ask why are any and all News announcemnts nation to nation always close to accurate but NFP is always wrong in the forecast and estimate. Why does one of the oldest news announcements dating to 1939 and contained in the repertoire of news announcements in the US still wrong month to month. Because forecasts month to month dating back years upon years are forecasted from Averages 15 years. Forecasters look for a median and average price and voila they call it the accurate prediction to expect on NFP day. What happens to this forecast, wrong for the most part although sometimes they get it right but that's simply because the series of averages were balanced longer term. I don't write NFP forecasts anymore because now we have written forecasts 1 week prior. To understand what accuracy means in NFP, many NFP writings are available as well as full and detailed descriptions of the entire release dating to 1939.

What's significant about 200,000 overall. We are dead center of overall predictions and job growth dating back to 2008 crisis times when job growth was deeply negative between 2008 to 2009. We came a long way and now we are balanced. What does balance mean and how should we trade NFP today.

Without the full data view, range breaks in the data occur at about 150,000 below and about 250,000 above. Range breaks in the data means below 150,000 , EUR/USD flys far higher while above 250,000, EUR/USD dives far lower. A forecast in between 150 250 then look for EUR/USD ranges from about 100 pips above to 100 pips below. A break of lower ranges then EUR/USD travels higher from 150 to 200 pips while a break above 250 look for again 150 to 200 below. Yet overall EUR/USD pip ranges today is 92 pips, this means look for 184 pips above or below in movements on NFP range breaks in the data. EUR/USD. What changes the structure of EUR/USD prices short is breaks at 1.1268 and 1.1151.

The level at 1.1268 is currently oversold while 1.1151 is slightly overbought but not to an alarming worry. EUR/USD price curve went from big scary tops througout to tops long term and way oversold short term. Today should decide a more solid direction yet this EUR/USD is in prime territory for a big move.

Big break points today above 1.1665, 1.1590, 1.1572, 1.1496, 1.1456, 1.1438, 1.1425, 1.1420.

Big break points below, 1.1318, 1.1313, 1.1286, 1.1245 and 1.1244, 1.1203.

Range breaks above 1.1899, 1.1752, 1.1590, Range breaks below 1.1244, 1.1089 and longer term 1.0951.

Target today, 1.1491, Failure point 1.1439. Any price above 1.1491, look for sells.

Here's the above levels, 1.1499, 1.1525, 1.1552, 1.1574, 1.1639.

Below Bottoms 1.1358, any price below, look for longs. Bottom targets 1.1387, 1.1373, 1.1358 Bottom.